Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 41.49%. A win for Deportivo Tachira had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-2 (7.72%). The likeliest Deportivo Tachira win was 1-0 (9.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Nacional in this match.