Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.54%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 20.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Fenix win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.