Copa del Rey | Round of 16

Jan 17, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Estadi Municipal de Montilivi

Girona
3 - 1
Rayo Vallecano

Stuani (15', 19' pen.), Blind (26')
Stuani (45+2')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Nteka (36')
Nteka (45+2')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa del Rey clash between Girona and Rayo Vallecano, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Girona

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Almeria 0-0 Girona
Sunday, January 14 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Huesca 0-2 Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, January 6 at 6pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Girona 2-1 Rayo Vallecano

Girona were surprisingly subdued against struggling Almeria on Sunday, but the fact that they are top of La Liga in January should not be underestimated. Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have maintained their form from the last two seasons. This should be an entertaining cup tie between two of Spain's rising clubs, but we expect Girona to perform closer to their peak levels and reach the quarter-finals for only the second time in their history. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 46.58%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.

Result
Girona	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
46.58% ( 0.33)	24.94% ( -0.5)	28.47% ( 0.17)

Both teams to score 54.9% (

1.72)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.96% (

2.2)

48.03% (

-2.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.8% (

1.99)

70.2% (

-1.99)

Girona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.33% (

1.05)

20.66% (

-1.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.75% (

1.63)

53.25% (

-1.63)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.2% (

1.27)

30.79% (

-1.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.93% (

1.47)

67.06% (

-1.47)

Score Analysis

Girona 46.58%

Rayo Vallecano 28.48%

Draw 24.93%

Girona	Draw	Rayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 10.03% ( -0.6) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.21) 3-1 @ 4.9% ( 0.2) 3-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( 0.21) 4-1 @ 1.93% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.14% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.68% Total : 46.58%	1-1 @ 11.81% ( -0.28) 0-0 @ 6.36% ( -0.6) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.93%	0-1 @ 7.5% ( -0.43) 1-2 @ 6.96% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.99% Total : 28.48%