Championship

Championship | Gameweek 28

Jan 22, 2022 at 12.30pm UK

City Ground

Nott'm Forest
2 - 1
Derby

Grabban (48'), Johnson (82')
Grabban (35'), Samba (89')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Lawrence (88' pen.)
Thompson (31'), Stearman (51'), Buchanan (56'), Lawrence (89'), Byrne (90+6')
Morrison (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Nottingham Forest and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Derby County

Despite the difference in league positions, this should be regarded as 50-50 contest, and Derby will relish the chance to get one over their hosts. Nevertheless, we feel that Forest might just edge this contest, potentially by the odd goal in three. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.31% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Nottingham Forest in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Nottingham Forest.

Result
Nottingham Forest	Draw	Derby County
41.11%	28.58%	30.31%

Both teams to score 45.05%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.85%

61.15%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.9%

81.1%

Nottingham Forest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.75%

29.25%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.79%

65.2%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.67%

36.32%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.89%

73.11%

Score Analysis

Nottingham Forest 41.11%

Derby County 30.3%

Draw 28.57%

Nottingham Forest	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 13.06% 2-1 @ 8.13% 2-0 @ 8.03% 3-1 @ 3.33% 3-0 @ 3.29% 3-2 @ 1.69% 4-1 @ 1.02% 4-0 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.54% Total : 41.11%	1-1 @ 13.22% 0-0 @ 10.62% 2-2 @ 4.12% Other @ 0.62% Total : 28.57%	0-1 @ 10.75% 1-2 @ 6.7% 0-2 @ 5.45% 1-3 @ 2.26% 0-3 @ 1.84% 2-3 @ 1.39% Other @ 1.92% Total : 30.3%