Nott'm Forest2 - 1Derby
We said: Nottingham Forest 2-1 Derby County
Despite the difference in league positions, this should be regarded as 50-50 contest, and Derby will relish the chance to get one over their hosts. Nevertheless, we feel that Forest might just edge this contest, potentially by the odd goal in three. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nottingham Forest win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.31% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Nottingham Forest in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Nottingham Forest.
| Result | ||
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Derby County |
| 41.11% | 28.58% | 30.31% |
| Both teams to score 45.05% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.85% | 61.15% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.9% | 81.1% |
| Nottingham Forest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.75% | 29.25% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.79% | 65.2% |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.67% | 36.32% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 26.89% | 73.11% |
| Score Analysis |
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 13.06% 2-1 @ 8.13% 2-0 @ 8.03% 3-1 @ 3.33% 3-0 @ 3.29% 3-2 @ 1.69% 4-1 @ 1.02% 4-0 @ 1.01% Other @ 1.54% Total : 41.11% | 1-1 @ 13.22% 0-0 @ 10.62% 2-2 @ 4.12% Other @ 0.62% Total : 28.57% | 0-1 @ 10.75% 1-2 @ 6.7% 0-2 @ 5.45% 1-3 @ 2.26% 0-3 @ 1.84% 2-3 @ 1.39% Other @ 1.92% Total : 30.3% |
