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Championship | Gameweek 35
Mar 1, 2025 at 3pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Derby logo

Middlesbrough
1 - 0
Derby

Azaz (80')
Azaz (81')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Barkhuizen (19'), Forsyth (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Middlesbrough and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Stoke 1-3 Middlesbrough
Tuesday, February 25 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 0-1 Millwall
Saturday, February 22 at 12.30pm in Championship

We said: Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby County

Middlesbrough will have renewed belief after returning to winning ways in midweek, and we think that they will build upon their successful trip to the bet365 stadium by recording a narrow victory over a Derby side that have lost five of their last six away league matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 55.26%. A draw has a probability of 24.5% and a win for Derby County has a probability of 20.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.75%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.6%), while for a Derby County win it is 0-1 (7.05%).

Result
MiddlesbroughDrawDerby County
55.26% (-1.034 -1.03) 24.54% (0.355 0.36) 20.2% (0.681 0.68)
Both teams to score 47.45% (0.009999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.43% (-0.525 -0.52)53.57% (0.529 0.53)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.92% (-0.444 -0.44)75.08% (0.44800000000001 0.45)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.7% (-0.59400000000001 -0.59)19.3% (0.597 0.6)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.94% (-0.991 -0.99)51.05% (0.994 0.99)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.8% (0.444 0.44)41.2% (-0.44 -0.44)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.27% (0.391 0.39)77.73% (-0.387 -0.39)
Score Analysis
    Middlesbrough 55.25%
    Derby County 20.2%
    Draw 24.54%
MiddlesbroughDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 13.08% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 10.75% (-0.19 -0.19)
2-1 @ 9.54% (-0.048 -0.05)
3-0 @ 5.9% (-0.217 -0.22)
3-1 @ 5.23% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-0 @ 2.43% (-0.137 -0.14)
3-2 @ 2.32% (-0.028 -0.03)
4-1 @ 2.15% (-0.094 -0.09)
4-2 @ 0.95% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 55.25%
1-1 @ 11.6% (0.17 0.17)
0-0 @ 7.95% (0.164 0.16)
2-2 @ 4.23% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 24.54%
0-1 @ 7.05% (0.228 0.23)
1-2 @ 5.14% (0.132 0.13)
0-2 @ 3.13% (0.138 0.14)
1-3 @ 1.52% (0.057 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.25% (0.023 0.02)
0-3 @ 0.92% (0.051 0.05)
Other @ 1.19%
Total : 20.2%

How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Derby

Middlesbrough
Draw
Derby County
Middlesbrough
76.5%
Draw
14.7%
Derby County
8.8%
34
Head to Head
Aug 17, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 2
Derby
1-0
Middlesbrough
Jackson (14')
Mendez-Laing (40'), Elder (67'), Jackson (90+2')

Latte Lath (42')
Feb 12, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 32
Middlesbrough
4-1
Derby
Buchanan (15' og.), Connolly (44'), Crooks (45+3'), Watmore (89')
Tavernier (27'), Crooks (31'), Howson (50')
Bird (39')
Lawrence (27'), Ebiowei (87'), (88')
Aug 21, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 4
Derby
0-0
Middlesbrough
Jagielka (66'), Byrne (90+1')
Peltier (30'), Tavernier (43'), Bola (54'), Jones (85')
Feb 13, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 29
Derby
2-1
Middlesbrough
Gregory (15'), Kazim-Richards (32')
Jozwiak (35'), Knight (90+4')
Kebano (38')
Dijksteel (62')
Nov 25, 2020 7pm
Gameweek 13
Middlesbrough
3-0
Derby
Assombalonga (33'), Clarke (71' og.), Johnson (83')

Jozwiak (9'), Lawrence (49'), Byrne (53'), Buchanan (65')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds382311476255180
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd38257653282580
3Burnley382115252114178
4Sunderland381912755371869
5Coventry CityCoventry38178135548759
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom381318748341457
7Bristol City38141594941857
8Middlesbrough38159145748954
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn38157164240252
10Watford38157164751-452
11Millwall381312133739-251
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds38149155359-651
13Norwich CityNorwich381213136054649
14Preston North EndPreston381017113944-547
15Queens Park RangersQPR381112154450-645
16Swansea CitySwansea38128183849-1144
17Portsmouth38119184661-1542
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd381012163955-1642
19Hull City381011173947-841
20Stoke CityStoke38912173751-1439
21Cardiff CityCardiff38912174262-2039
22Derby CountyDerby38108204051-1138
23Luton TownLuton3898213460-2635
24Plymouth ArgylePlymouth38712194077-3733


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