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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Derby County |
42.78% | 27.21% | 30.02% |
Both teams to score 48.79% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.63% | 56.37% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.61% | 77.39% |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.92% | 26.08% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.87% | 61.13% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.01% | 33.99% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.33% | 70.67% |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 11.91% 2-1 @ 8.64% 2-0 @ 8.01% 3-1 @ 3.87% 3-0 @ 3.59% 3-2 @ 2.09% 4-1 @ 1.3% 4-0 @ 1.21% Other @ 2.16% Total : 42.77% | 1-1 @ 12.85% 0-0 @ 8.87% 2-2 @ 4.66% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.2% | 0-1 @ 9.57% 1-2 @ 6.94% 0-2 @ 5.16% 1-3 @ 2.5% 0-3 @ 1.86% 2-3 @ 1.68% Other @ 2.33% Total : 30.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
3 | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
4 | ![]() | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
4 | ![]() | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |