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Championship | Gameweek 23
Dec 17, 2022 at 3pm UK
Turf Moor
Middlesbrough logo

Burnley
3 - 1
Middlesbrough

Benson (60', 67'), Howson (72' og.)
Cork (75')
Roberts (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Watmore (49')
Steffen (57'), Lenihan (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Burnley and Middlesbrough, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: QPR 0-3 Burnley
Sunday, December 11 at 1pm in Championship

We said: Burnley 2-0 Middlesbrough

Burnley are a few more good results away from creating a significant gap between themselves and the rest of the Championship, with those inside the Clarets camp insisting they have an extra gear to go into as the season reaches the midway point. Middlesbrough will definitely fancy their chances of competing for a playoff position this campaign but will struggle to leave Turf Moor with anything to show for their efforts in terms of points on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 58.88%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 19.04%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a Middlesbrough win it was 0-1 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.

Result
BurnleyDrawMiddlesbrough
58.88% (-0.182 -0.18) 22.08% (0.296 0.3) 19.04% (-0.115 -0.12)
Both teams to score 53.07% (-1.186 -1.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.87% (-1.478 -1.48)45.13% (1.475 1.48)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.52% (-1.431 -1.43)67.48% (1.429 1.43)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.01% (-0.551 -0.55)14.98% (0.549 0.55)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.57% (-1.055 -1.06)43.43% (1.054 1.05)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.42% (-0.985 -0.98)37.58% (0.983 0.98)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.64% (-0.975 -0.98)74.36% (0.973 0.97)
Score Analysis
    Burnley 58.87%
    Middlesbrough 19.04%
    Draw 22.08%
BurnleyDrawMiddlesbrough
1-0 @ 10.68% (0.46 0.46)
2-0 @ 10.14% (0.246 0.25)
2-1 @ 9.93% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
3-0 @ 6.42% (0.034 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.28% (-0.136 -0.14)
3-2 @ 3.07% (-0.152 -0.15)
4-0 @ 3.05% (-0.043 -0.04)
4-1 @ 2.98% (-0.125 -0.13)
4-2 @ 1.46% (-0.102 -0.1)
5-0 @ 1.16% (-0.04 -0.04)
5-1 @ 1.13% (-0.07 -0.07)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 58.87%
1-1 @ 10.46% (0.19 0.19)
0-0 @ 5.63% (0.348 0.35)
2-2 @ 4.86% (-0.141 -0.14)
3-3 @ 1% (-0.078 -0.08)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 22.08%
0-1 @ 5.51% (0.201 0.2)
1-2 @ 5.12% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
0-2 @ 2.7% (0.028 0.03)
1-3 @ 1.67% (-0.061 -0.06)
2-3 @ 1.59% (-0.09 -0.09)
Other @ 2.46%
Total : 19.04%

How you voted: Burnley vs Middlesbrough

Burnley
81.6%
Draw
7.9%
Middlesbrough
10.5%
76
Head to Head
Apr 8, 2017 3pm
Dec 26, 2016 3pm
Burnley
1-0
Middlesbrough
Gray (80')
Boyd (21'), Mee (42'), Flanagan (54'), Ward (66'), Gray (73'), Hendrick (85')

de Roon (2'), Ramirez (31'), Barragan (45'), Da Silva (80'), Negredo (90')
Apr 19, 2016 7.45pm
Jan 9, 2016 3pm
Third Round
Middlesbrough
1-2
Burnley
Fabbrini (36')
Forshaw (20'), Friend (38')
Hennings (45'), Ward (71')
Barton (83')
Dec 15, 2015 7.45pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland139222391429
2Leeds UnitedLeeds137512281426
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd138321661025
4Burnley136521761123
5Watford137152221122
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom13562148621
7Millwall135441612419
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn135441614219
9Bristol City134721717019
10Norwich CityNorwich134632318518
11Middlesbrough135351415-118
12Swansea CitySwansea13445109116
13Coventry CityCoventry134361717015
14Derby CountyDerby134361617-115
15Hull City133641517-215
16Stoke CityStoke134361518-315
17Cardiff CityCardiff134361319-615
18Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds134361524-915
19Oxford UnitedOxford Utd133551617-114
20Preston North EndPreston133551420-614
21Luton TownLuton133371521-612
22Plymouth ArgylePlymouth133371325-1212
23Queens Park RangersQPR131751119-810
24Portsmouth131661326-139


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