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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 58.88%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 19.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a Middlesbrough win it was 0-1 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
Result | ||
Burnley | Draw | Middlesbrough |
58.88% ( -0.18) | 22.08% ( 0.3) | 19.04% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 53.07% ( -1.19) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.87% ( -1.48) | 45.13% ( 1.48) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.52% ( -1.43) | 67.48% ( 1.43) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.01% ( -0.55) | 14.98% ( 0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.57% ( -1.06) | 43.43% ( 1.05) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.42% ( -0.98) | 37.58% ( 0.98) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.64% ( -0.98) | 74.36% ( 0.97) |
Score Analysis |
Burnley | Draw | Middlesbrough |
1-0 @ 10.68% ( 0.46) 2-0 @ 10.14% ( 0.25) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.28% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.15) 4-0 @ 3.05% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.98% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.1) 5-0 @ 1.16% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.57% Total : 58.87% | 1-1 @ 10.46% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 5.63% ( 0.35) 2-2 @ 4.86% ( -0.14) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.08% | 0-1 @ 5.51% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 2.7% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.46% Total : 19.04% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 32 |
2 | Sunderland | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 31 |
3 | Burnley | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 30 |
4 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 29 |
5 | Middlesbrough | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 27 |
6 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 26 |
7 | Watford | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 26 |
8 | Millwall | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 23 |
9 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 22 |
10 | Bristol City | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 22 |
11 | Derby CountyDerby | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
12 | Stoke CityStoke | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 20 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 19 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 19 |
15 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
16 | Luton TownLuton | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 18 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 17 |
18 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 17 |
19 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 17 |
20 | Preston North EndPreston | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
21 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
22 | Hull City | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
23 | Portsmouth | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 12 |
24 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 11 |
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