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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 66.96%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Rotherham United had a probability of 12.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.25%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.61%), while for a Rotherham United win it was 0-1 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
Result | ||
Burnley | Draw | Rotherham United |
66.96% ( 4.37) | 20.41% ( -1.59) | 12.63% ( -2.78) |
Both teams to score 43.88% ( -2.23) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.18% ( 0.87) | 49.82% ( -0.87) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.18% ( 0.77) | 71.82% ( -0.77) |
Burnley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.02% ( 1.67) | 13.98% ( -1.67) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.52% ( 3.19) | 41.48% ( -3.19) |
Rotherham United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.01% ( -3.65) | 48.99% ( 3.66) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.05% ( -2.75) | 83.95% ( 2.75) |
Score Analysis |
Burnley | Draw | Rotherham United |
1-0 @ 13.47% ( 0.32) 2-0 @ 13.25% ( 1.05) 2-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 8.7% ( 1.15) 3-1 @ 6.21% ( 0.24) 4-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.78) 4-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.28) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.15) 5-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.39) 5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.18) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.35% Total : 66.95% | 1-1 @ 9.61% ( -0.79) 0-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.44) Other @ 0.58% Total : 20.41% | 0-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.73) 1-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.69) 0-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.48) Other @ 2.57% Total : 12.63% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 11 | 21 | 48 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 15 | 26 | 45 |
3 | Burnley | 22 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 44 |
4 | Sunderland | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 43 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 35 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 35 |
8 | Watford | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 34 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 32 |
10 | Millwall | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 28 |
11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Bristol City | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 27 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 26 |
14 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 25 |
15 | Luton TownLuton | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 25 |
16 | Derby CountyDerby | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 24 |
18 | Preston North EndPreston | 22 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 23 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 22 |
20 | Portsmouth | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 20 |
21 | Hull City | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 19 |
22 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 18 |
23 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 18 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 18 |
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