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Champions League
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Champions League | Group Stage
Sep 14, 2022 at 5.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Dinamo Zagreb

AC Milan
3 - 1
Dinamo Zagreb

Giroud (45' pen.), Saelemaekers (47'), Pobega (77')
Pioli (51')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Orsic (56')
Orsic (74'), Marin (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between AC Milan and Dinamo Zagreb, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

Last Six:
Last Game: Sampdoria 1-2 AC Milan
Saturday, September 10 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Dinamo Zagreb

Last Six:
    Last Game: Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Chelsea
    Tuesday, September 6 at 5.45pm in Champions League

    We said: AC Milan 2-1 Dinamo Zagreb

     As Rafael Leao may feel he has a point to prove before his domestic suspension kicks in for Sunday's clash with Napoli, the talented winger may play an integral role in getting Milan off the mark in Group E. Victory will not come easily, though, as Dinamo possess several players of the calibre and European experience to score at least once and push the home side close. Read more.

    Data Analysis

    Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 56.66%. A win for Dinamo Zagreb had a probability of 22.07% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.

    The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.14%) and 1-0 (8%). The likeliest Dinamo Zagreb win was 1-2 (5.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

    Result
    AC MilanDrawDinamo Zagreb
    56.66% (0.091999999999999 0.09) 21.27% (0.009999999999998 0.01) 22.07% (-0.1 -0.1)
    Both teams to score 60.78% (-0.169 -0.17)
    Goals
    Over 2.5Under 2.5
    62.77% (-0.159 -0.16)37.23% (0.159 0.16)
    Over 3.5Under 3.5
    40.56% (-0.171 -0.17)59.44% (0.172 0.17)
    AC Milan Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    86.95% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)13.06% (0.026 0.03)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    60.37% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)39.64% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
    Dinamo Zagreb Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    69.9% (-0.17400000000001 -0.17)30.1% (0.175 0.18)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    33.76% (-0.208 -0.21)66.24% (0.209 0.21)
    Score Analysis
        AC Milan 56.66%
        Dinamo Zagreb 22.07%
        Draw 21.27%
    AC MilanDrawDinamo Zagreb
    2-1 @ 9.78% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
    2-0 @ 8.14% (0.048 0.05)
    1-0 @ 8% (0.054 0.05)
    3-1 @ 6.64%
    3-0 @ 5.53% (0.027 0.03)
    3-2 @ 3.98% (-0.019 -0.02)
    4-1 @ 3.38% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
    4-0 @ 2.81% (0.011 0.01)
    4-2 @ 2.03% (-0.011 -0.01)
    5-1 @ 1.38% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
    5-0 @ 1.15% (0.0030000000000001 0)
    Other @ 3.86%
    Total : 56.66%
    		1-1 @ 9.61% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
    2-2 @ 5.87% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
    0-0 @ 3.93% (0.031 0.03)
    3-3 @ 1.6% (-0.015 -0.02)
    Other @ 0.27%
    Total : 21.27%
    		1-2 @ 5.77% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
    0-1 @ 4.72% (0.013 0.01)
    0-2 @ 2.83% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
    2-3 @ 2.35% (-0.02 -0.02)
    1-3 @ 2.31% (-0.018 -0.02)
    0-3 @ 1.13% (-0.008 -0.01)
    Other @ 2.96%
    Total : 22.07%

    How you voted: AC Milan vs Dinamo Zagreb

    AC Milan
    74.0%
    Draw
    11.5%
    Dinamo Zagreb
    14.5%
    442
    rhs 2.0
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