Serie A's bottom two sides face off at Stadio Mario Rigamonti on Sunday evening as Brescia and SPAL attempt to delay relegation.
SPAL have lost their last four matches and are bottom of the division, two points worse off than Brescia and a further nine adrift of safety with five games to go.
Match preview
SPAL require at least four wins from their remaining five matches to dodge relegation, three years after earning a return back to the top tier of Italian football.
Given that they have won five matches in their first 33 matches, it is almost a certainty that they will drop down a division in the coming days.
That could be as soon as this weekend, with 17th-placed Genoa facing Lecce, the other side in the bottom three, at the same time that SPAL travel to Brescia.
Le Rondinelle are themselves in a perilous position after winning just one of their last 18 league matches since before Christmas.
Diego Lopez's side have lost four games on the spin, most recently going down 6-2 to Europe's big entertainers Atalanta BC on Tuesday evening.
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SPAL were also on the end of a four-goal defeat, with a weakened Inter Milan side cruising to victory after clicking into gear in the second half.
If they are to end their long wait for an away win then this fixture will be it as Brescia have won only two home games so far this season - the worst record of any side in Europe's top five leagues this season.
Indeed, only Norwich City (0.4) and Dijon (0.5) have scored fewer goals per game than SPAL (0.6) away from home this season in their respective leagues.
With SPAL and Lecce to play in their next two games, though, it really is do-or-die time for Lopez's charges. A failure to take maximum points from those matches and their fate will surely be sealed.
Brescia were 1-0 winners in the reverse fixture thanks to Mario Balotelli's goal and will be looking to pull off a home-and-away double in Serie A for the first time since 2004-05.
Brescia's Serie A form: DLWLLL
SPAL's Serie A form: LDLLLL
Team News
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Alberto Cerri replaced Sergio Floccari in attack against Inter, but Luigi Di Biagio may recall the latter for Sunday's match.
Simone Missiroli and Georgi Tunjov are also in contention to start after being left out in midweek, but Etrit Berisha will play no part due to injury.
As for Brescia, Jhon Chancellor has started back-to-back games after recovering from injury and should retain his place in the heart of defence.
Alfredo Donnarumma was brought into attack against Atalanta as Lopez went with a 4-4-2, but the hosts are expected to go with a 4-3-3 this weekend.
Brescia striker Ernesto Torregrossa scored in the last match against Atalanta and is looking find the net in consecutive Serie A games for the first time in his career.
Brescia possible starting lineup:
Andrenacci; Sabelli, Papetti, Chancellor, Mangravatti; Ndoj, Tonali, Bjarnason; Skrabb, Torregrossa; Spalek
SPAL possible starting lineup:
Letica; Cionek, Vicari, Bonifazi, Reca; Strefezza, Missiroli, Dabo, Tunjov; Petagna, Floccari
We say: Brescia 1-1 SPAL
Brescia and SPAL have won five games apiece this season and have little hope of avoiding relegation. On the back of heavy defeats last time out, we can see the sides cancelling each other out in a result that will suit neither of them.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 38.17%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brescia would win this match.
