After accumulating just one point from the last six available, Athletico Paranaense will be looking to bounce back with a victory on Saturday when they travel to Ceara in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A.
The hosts have won just three of their 11 league matches this season – all of which were on home soil – while the visitors have lost two of their last three away games.
Match preview
© Reuters
Ceara extended their unbeaten league run to seven matches when they drew 2-2 away at Cuiaba last weekend, however they could have taken away all three points as they were in front heading into stoppage time.
After Elton broke the deadlock for the host's in the 26th minute, second-half strikes from Rick and Jael Ferreira turned the game on its head, but they were unable to cling on for the win as substitute Jenison scored a 93rd-minute equaliser to rescue a point for Cuiaba.
That result was Ceara's sixth league draw of the season and their fifth in their last seven games; only Cuiaba have drawn as many fixtures so far this campaign.
Guto Ferreira's men have slipped down to 11th in the table, eight points clear of the drop zone and six points behind the top four.
Ceara have failed to win any of their last seven top-flight meetings against Paranaense, but a victory against them on Saturday could see the Vozao climb into sixth place, a Copa Libertadores qualification spot.
© Reuters
Athletico Paranaense head into this fixture after claiming a narrow 1-0 away victory against Colombian side America de Cali in their first-leg last-16 tie of the Copa Sudamericana on Wednesday.
The goalkeepers were rarely tested throughout the match and it needed a penalty converted by Nikao to break the deadlock in the 73rd minute. This strike could prove to be a crucial goal for the visitors who are looking to go all the way and win the competition for the first time since 2017.
Before Antonio Oliveira can focus on the second leg, he and his side must first turn their attention to Saturday's game with Ceara, a team they last lost against back in 2012.
Two draws and one defeat in the last five league games for Paranaense – who were leading the Brasileiro just under a month ago – has seen them slip down to fifth in the table, five points behind Palmeiras at the summit.
Paranaense have lost two of their last three away games in the top-flight, but Oliveira will be confident that his side can claim all three points this weekend, which could move them up to second place.
- W
- D
- D
- W
- D
- D
- L
- D
- W
- W
- L
- D
- D
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Ceara will be without Vinicius Machado (thigh), Gabriel Dias (knee), Luiz Otavio (sprained ankle), Joao Ricardo (hand) and Vitor Jacare (knee) due to injury.
Left-back Bruno Pacheco could start for the third successive game ahead of Kelvyn, while attacking midfielder Lima will be hoping he can force his way back into the starting lineup ahead of Jorginho.
As for Athletico Paranaense, defender Lucas Halter remains their only injury concern as he is recovering from a foot problem.
Oliveira switched to a back three for their Copa Sudamericana tie on Wednesday, but he could revert to a four-man defence this weekend.
David Terans, who has four assists so far this campaign, is set to drop back into the number ten role, with Matheus Babi expected to lead the line up front.
Ceara possible starting lineup:
Richard; Buiu, Lacerda, Messias, Pacheco; Sobral, Marlon; Rick, Jorginho, Mendoza; Ferreira
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Bento; Marcinho, Ivaldo, Heleno, Nicolas; Richard, Christian; Nikao, Terans, Vitinho; Babi
We say: Ceara 1-1 Athletico Paranaense
Both sides have made themselves difficult to beat so far this campaign – losing only two games each – though they have looked vulnerable in defence at times, conceding a combined 23 league goals.
Athletico Paranaense will be slight favourites for Saturday's contest, but we feel that Ceara could frustrate them and play out another draw on home soil.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 29.65% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.22%) and 2-1 (7.95%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ceara in this match.
