Either Athletico Paranaense or Cerro Porteno will claim the final place in the last 16 of the Copa Sudamericana when they square off on Thursday at Ligga Arena.
This tie is all square after El Paranaense came from behind with a second-half equaliser, and these sides played to a 1-1 draw in the opening match between them last week.
Match preview
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It was a hard-fought result for the Brazilians last week, as their second-half push was eventually rewarded, ending a two-match losing run in this competition.
That was also the first time they claimed a positive result after conceding the opening goal, though Paranaense have earned seven points in the Brazilian top flight this year when falling behind 1-0.
Martin Varini's men have not been at their best at home in this competition, losing their final two group contests by a single goal after winning their opening Sudamericana clash at Ligga Arena, 6-0 over Rayo Zuliano.
Not since 2015 have we seen this club fail to qualify for the Sudamericana last 16, when they were eliminated in the second round by Flamengo (2-0 on aggregate).
On Thursday, they have a chance to win consecutive games at home in all competitions for the first time since defeating Internacional in late April (1-0) and following that up with a 1-0 triumph over Vasco da Gama in early May.
They have not been eliminated from a knockout tie at the Sudamericana when even or behind after match one since the 2015 quarter-finals when Sportivo Luqueno from Paraguay defeated them 2-0 in the return leg, advancing 2-1 on aggregate.
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Playing at home does not seem to be an ideal setting for Cerro Porteno, who are now winless in three successive matches across all competitions at Estadio General Pablo Rojas.
In the opening leg of this tie, they conceded a goal for the first time since a 2-0 domestic defeat at home to Luqueno in early June.
Manolo Jimenez has seen his side look much more balanced and comfortable defensively as the visiting team, winning their last four competitive fixtures away from home, conceding only one goal over that stretch.
This is their first appearance in the knockout phase of this tournament since 2017, and they have made it to at least the round of 16 or further in each of their previous three appearances.
Not since the opening round of the 2017 Copa Sudamericana have they advanced from a knockout tie at this tournament when tied heading into the return engagement.
El Ciclon have not won a match at this event on Brazilian soil since the 2009 quarter-finals when they defeated Botafogo 3-1 and went to win that tie, 5-2 on aggregate.
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Team News
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Last week, El Paranaense were missing Felipinho as he has been dealing with an illness and may not be available for this match.
A 69th-minute strike courtesy of Christian enabled them to claim a result in the opening leg, his first of the Sudamericana this year.
Porteno were without Bruno Valdez and Lucas Quintana for the first match against Paranaense as both players are recovering from cruciate ligament tears, while Jean was replaced at half-time by Alexis Martin Arias, and the Brazilian goalkeepers' status is up in the air for this fixture.
Miguel Benitez fired home the opening goal last Wednesday, his first of the 2024 tournament, which was ultimately not enough, while Diego Churin missed a penalty late in the opening half with his team up by one.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Linck; Godoy, Rocha, Heleno, Esquivel; Erick, Fernandinho; Cuello, Zapelli, Pablo; Mastriani
Cerro Porteno possible starting lineup:
Arias; Gimenez, Baez, Brock, Benitez; Iturbe, Morel, Da Motta, Aguayo; Chruin, Carrizo
We say: Athletico Paranaense 1-1 Cerro Porteno (Cerro Porteno advance on penalties)
These sides are evenly matched in virtually every category, but the Paraguayans have looked quite comfortable away from home, while El Paranaense appear to be overwhelmed when playing in front of their supporters.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
