Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 65.19%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Sirius had a probability of 15.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.25%) and 1-2 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.32%), while for a Sirius win it was 1-0 (4.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.