Ajax square off against AZ Alkmaar in the KNVB Beker semi-finals looking to respond to their surprise Eredivisie defeat at Go Ahead Eagles at the weekend.
At a time when Ajax still sit two points clear at the top of the standings, AZ are in fourth position after a fine run of form since the turn of the year.
Match preview
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Despite having required a late goal to get the better of Willem II on February 13, Ajax head coach Erik ten Hag would have rated the performance as a minor blip over one which had the potential to have longer consequences.
However, after twice giving up a lead in their Champions League fixture at Benfica, eventually collecting a 2-2 draw, Ajax were on the receiving end of the surprise result of the season.
Go Ahead Eagles went into Sunday's meeting with the champions on the back of a nine-match winless streak in the Eredivisie, but they found a way to record a famous 2-1 victory.
With PSV Eindhoven having already capitalised to close the gap to two points, Ajax now find themselves in a position where silverware at the end of the campaign should not be regarded as a foregone conclusion.
While Ajax have scored 19 goals without reply to reach the last four of this competition, they face opponents in AZ who have already defeated them this campaign.
That result came at the Johan Cruijff ArenA back in December with Zakaria Aboukhlal's 83rd-minute strike securing a 2-1 win.
AZ have since prolonged the best run in Dutch football this season, putting together an 18-match unbeaten streak in all competitions since November 7.
The impact of Pascal Jansen at the AFAS Stadion will not be going unnoticed elsewhere, but his focus will be on backing up an excellent campaign with a trophy or qualification for the Champions League.
AZ remain seven points off second spot in the Eredivisie with 10 matches remaining, potentially leaving Jansen to throw more at trying to win this competition or the Europa Conference League.
The Cheeseheads have reached this stage of the KNVB Beker by defeating Heracles, FC Twente and RKC Waalwijk respectively.
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Team News
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Despite AZ having to work hard to record an important win over Feyenoord at the weekend, home advantage and an extra day's rest may encourage Jansen to select the same starting lineup.
Jesper Karlsson is AZ's leading marksman this season, but his only two goals from his last six outings have come from the penalty spot.
Given the struggles of his side on Sunday, Ten Hag will likely make several alterations to his Ajax XI, with Ryan Gravenberch expected to feature in midfield.
Noussair Mazraoui may get the nod at right-back, while Nicolas Tagliafico will hope for a rare start on the opposite flank.
Goalkeeper Maarten Stekelenburg is out for the season with a hip injury, and this game could come too soon for Brian Brobbey who has been absent with a knee problem since January.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Vindahl; Witry, Hatzidiakos, Martins Indi, Wijndal; Sugawara, Midtsjo, Clasie, Karlsson; De Wit; Pavlidis
Ajax possible starting lineup:
Onana; Mazraoui, Schuurs, Martinez, Tagliafico; Alvarez, Gravenberch; Antony, Berghuis, Tadic; Haller
We say: AZ Alkmaar 1-3 Ajax
Despite witnessing Ajax succumb to a rare defeat at the weekend, AZ will know that the giants of Dutch football will be further motivated to prevail on Wednesday evening. With that in mind, we feel that Ajax could emerge victorious in rather comfortable fashion.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 42.16%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 32.57% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.91%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
