African Nations Championship | Semi-Finals

Jan 31, 2023 at 7pm UK

Senegal
1 - 0
Madagascar

Diallo (5')
Sidibe (85'), Koite (90+2')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's African Nations Championship clash between Senegal and Madagascar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Senegal

All competitions

African Nations Championship

Last Game: Senegal 1-0 Mauritania
Friday, January 27 at 7pm in African Nations Championship

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands	3	4	7
2	Senegal	3	1	6
3	Ecuador	3	1	4
4	Qatar	3	-6	0

Madagascar

All competitions

African Nations Championship

Last Game: Madagascar 3-1 Mozambique
Saturday, January 28 at 4pm in African Nations Championship

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Madagascar	3	3	7
2	Nigeria	3	0	6
3	Guinea	3	1	4
4	Burundi	3	-4	0

We said: Senegal 2-1 Madagascar

Senegal have the upper hand judging by their previous matchups against Madagascar, and they will fancy themselves to carry the day once again. While we see Madagascar putting up a decent fight, we are tipping Senegal to just about emerge triumphant. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 73.13%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 7.14%.

The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (18.03%) and 3-0 (11.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.38%), while for a Madagascar win it was 0-1 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 19.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Senegal in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Senegal.

Result
Senegal	Draw	Madagascar
73.13% ( 0.31)	19.73% ( -0.03)	7.14% ( -0.29)

Both teams to score 27.92% (

-0.98)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.46% (

-0.65)

60.54% (

0.64)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.35% (

-0.49)

80.65% (

0.49)

Senegal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.49% (

-0.12)

15.51% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.58% (

-0.22)

44.42% (

0.22)

Madagascar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

33.04% (

-1.11)

66.96% (

1.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

6.18% (

-0.46)

93.82% (

0.45)

Score Analysis

Senegal 73.12%

Madagascar 7.14%

Draw 19.72%

Senegal	Draw	Madagascar
1-0 @ 19.35% ( 0.39) 2-0 @ 18.03% ( 0.29) 3-0 @ 11.2% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 7.23% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 5.22% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.09% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 0.9% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.65% Total : 73.12%	0-0 @ 10.38% ( 0.25) 1-1 @ 7.76% ( -0.16) 2-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.1) Other @ 0.13% Total : 19.72%	0-1 @ 4.17% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 1.56% ( -0.1) Other @ 1.42% Total : 7.14%