African Nations Championship | Quarter-Finals

Jan 27, 2023 at 7pm UK

Senegal
1 - 0
Mauritania

Camara (34' pen.)
Ndiaye (19'), Ndiaye (19'), Sane (51'), Diouf (57'), Kane (77')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Beibou (30'), Mouhsine (47'), Mheimid (90')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's African Nations Championship clash between Senegal and Mauritania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Senegal

All competitions

African Nations Championship

Last Game: Senegal 3-0 Congo DR
Sunday, January 22 at 7pm in African Nations Championship

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Netherlands	3	4	7
2	Senegal	3	1	6
3	Ecuador	3	1	4
4	Qatar	3	-6	0

Mauritania

All competitions

African Nations Championship

Last Game: Mauritania 1-0 Mali
Tuesday, January 24 at 4pm in African Nations Championship

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	3	7
2	Gambia	3	2	7
3	Tunisia	3	2	3
4	Mauritania	3	-7	0

We said: Senegal 1-0 Mauritania

Only Algeria have recorded more clean sheets than Senegal and Mauritania at the 2023 CHAN, so we expect a low-scoring affair here. That said, we can also see Senegal getting the job done come the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 75.43%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Mauritania had a probability of 6.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (18.52%) and 3-0 (12.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.72%), while for a Mauritania win it was 0-1 (3.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 19% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Senegal in this match.

Result
Senegal	Draw	Mauritania
75.43%	18.35%	6.22%

Both teams to score 27.06%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.22%

58.78%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.7%

79.3%

Senegal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.8%

14.2%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.09%

41.91%

Mauritania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

31.53%

68.47%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

5.6%

94.4%

Score Analysis

Senegal 75.42%

Mauritania 6.22%

Draw 18.35%

Senegal	Draw	Mauritania
1-0 @ 18.97% 2-0 @ 18.52% 3-0 @ 12.05% 2-1 @ 7.02% 4-0 @ 5.88% 3-1 @ 4.57% 5-0 @ 2.3% 4-1 @ 2.23% Other @ 3.89% Total : 75.42%	0-0 @ 9.72% 1-1 @ 7.19% 2-2 @ 1.33% Other @ 0.11% Total : 18.35%	0-1 @ 3.68% 1-2 @ 1.36% Other @ 1.18% Total : 6.22%