Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 9, 2024 at 8pm UK
Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium
Ethiopia0 - 2Congo DR
Form, Standings, Stats
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Tanzania 0-0 Ethiopia
Wednesday, September 4 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Wednesday, September 4 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
We said: Ethiopia 0-1 Congo DR
Goals have been few and far between for both teams of late, and we can see that translating into a low-scoring affair here. That said, we are also backing Congo DR to pip their hosts to all three points in the end. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Congo DR win with a probability of 40.97%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 28.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Congo DR win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.54%) and 1-2 (7.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.99%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 1-0 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Congo DR would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Congo DR |
28.19% ( 0.03) | 30.84% ( 0.04) | 40.97% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 38.63% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 31.43% ( -0.11) | 68.57% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 13.69% ( -0.07) | 86.31% ( 0.07) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.76% ( -0.03) | 42.24% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 21.36% ( -0.03) | 78.64% ( 0.03) |
| Congo DR Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.87% ( -0.11) | 33.12% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.28% ( -0.11) | 69.72% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
Ethiopia 28.18%
Congo DR 40.96%
Draw 30.84%
| Ethiopia | Draw | Congo DR |
| 1-0 @ 12.05% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 1.65% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.49% ( 0)3-2 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 1.14% Total : 28.18% | 0-0 @ 13.99% ( 0.06) 1-1 @ 13.32% 2-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.36% Total : 30.84% | 0-1 @ 15.45% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 7.36% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.59% Total : 40.96% |
How you voted: Ethiopia vs Congo DR
Ethiopia
47.5%Draw
10.0%Congo DR
42.5%40
Form Guide
