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Preview: Andrey Rublev vs. Ben Shelton - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's Swiss Indoors quarter-final between Andrey Rublev and Ben Shelton, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Ben Shelton takes on Swiss Indoors top seed Andrey Rublev in Friday's quarter-final, keen to record success in his 13th last-eight match on the ATP Tour.

The Russian has had an easy-going week in Basel as he bids to make the ATP Finals in Turin next month, and he partakes in a 13th quarter-final of 2024 against Shelton, hoping to extend his American opponent's losing record against top-10 opposition.


Match preview

IAndrey Rublev reacts at the Swiss Indoors on October 21, 2024© Imago

Rublev needed a deep run in Switzerland to strengthen his prospects of qualifying for the ATP Finals in Turin, and the Russian player has played commendably in his first appearance in Basel.

Currently seventh in the live race, the 16-time tour-level champion has made it to a 13th quarter-final appearance this season, a career-high since turning pro in 2014, by defeating Nuno Borges and Alejandro Tabilo without dropping a set.

While he had trouble landing first serves against the Portuguese player, making 55% of such deliveries, an improvement to 71% in round two's success over Tabilo aided the Russian's victory over the left-handed Chilean.

With Casper Ruud — seventh in the live race — exiting in round one to Roberto Bautista Agut, Grigor Dimitrov (10th) and Tommy Paul (11th) all eliminated early in Basel or the concurrent ATP 500 event in Vienna, Rublev's chances of a fifth straight appearance at the ATP Finals have been enhanced this week.

Ben Shelton pictured at the Swiss Indoors event on October 22, 2024© Imago

Those prospects could be doubly strengthened by defeating Shelton, whose booming serve and hard-hitting could halt the 27-year-old's chase for a third title in 2024.

The American player got the better of veteran Stanislas Wawrinka in Thursday's match-up that witnessed a staggering 20 forehand winners from the younger opponent, who held his nerve on the big points to eliminate the three-time Grand Slam champion 7-6(2), 7-5.

Shelton saving all five break points engineered by the 39-year-old was undoubtedly beneficial in making the last eight in Basel on his maiden appearance, his 13th overall on the ATP Tour.

While the sixth seed hopes to reach the last four, where Stefanos Tsitsipas or doubles partner Arthur Fils awaits, his 4-12 record against top-10 opponents underscores the challenge ahead of the world No. 23 against Rublev.


Tournament so far

Andrey Rublev:

First round: vs. Nuno Borges 6-3 6-2
Second round: vs. Alejandro Tabilo 7-6(3) 6-1

Ben Shelton:

First round: vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-3 6-4
Second round: vs. Stanislas Wawrinka 7-6(2) 7-5


Head To Head

Adding to the excitement of Friday's quarter-final in Switzerland, both players will face each other for the first time on the ATP Tour.

The quarter-final battle in Switzerland will be the first match-up between both players, adding to the excitement before Friday.

Shelton heads into the last-eight match with a 39-23 record in 2024, marginally inferior to Rublev's 40-21, highlighting the expected closeness of the contest.

However, the American must raise his level to beat a top-10 player, having lost five of six matches against such opponents in 2024, albeit two each against Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz and another against Alexander Zverev — the tour-leading players for most wins this year.


SM words green background

We say: Shelton to win in three sets

Shelton's only top-10 triumph this season came against Daniil Medvedev at the Laver Cup, and the hard-hitting American will hope to catch Rublev on a bad day to notch his first victory over a highly-ranked player at an ATP event since last year's triumph over Sinner in Shanghai.

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