The final match in Pool A of the 2023 Rugby World Cup will see the host nation France look to end the group stages unbeaten when they take on Italy at the Groupama Stadium on Friday evening.
France only has to steer clear of a loss in this match to secure their spot in the quarter-finals, while Italy must win the match without conceding any points to advance to the knockout stage for the first time in their history.
Match preview
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France have been very good in this competition to date and are on the verge of clinching the top spot in Pool A, which would set up an absolute blockbuster knockout-round clash against South Africa or Scotland.
Earlier in the competition, Fabien Galthie's side took down the All Blacks 27-13 in their opening match, and while their 27-12 win over Uruguay was less convincing, it is arguable that they fielded a second-string side that made the contest closer than it should have been.
Les Bleus now have all the momentum they could ask for heading into this one after completely annihilating Namibia 96-0 in their last match to record the biggest win in this year's competition so far.
However, that win did come at a cost, as Antoine Dupont sustained a fracture to his cheekbone after being hit by a dangerous tackle by Namibia's Johan Deysel, who received a red card and a five-match ban.
While the French have sufficient cover at scrum-half for this match, they will be hoping that their captain will be fit and ready for the quarter-finals, although he will have to be cleared by the team's medical staff first.
France and Italy are no strangers to each other, having locked horns annually in the Six Nations, and Les Bleus have been by far the more dominant side in this encounter, recording 13 consecutive wins over this opponent leading up to this match.
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Meanwhile, following a sluggish start against Namibia, the Italians did emerge as comfortable winners, and in their following match against Uruguay, they were trailing significantly at halftime and required an exceptional second-half performance to secure the bonus point victory.
After those two easier fixtures in the opening weeks of the tournament, Italy faced their biggest test of the competition last week when they lined up against the 2023 Rugby Championship winners New Zealand.
Fair to say, the Azzuri failed that test as they were hammered 96-17 by the three-time champions, who ran in a whopping 14 tries in the match, bringing back memories of their 1999 RWC match when the All Blacks beat the Italians 101-3.
While reaching the knockout stages from this position seems unlikely, Kieran Crowley's side are still in with a chance and will gain confidence from their last meeting against Les Bleus when they were only narrowly beaten 29-24 in Rome earlier this year.
However, their overall record against France does not inspire much confidence, having only won three matches in the history of rugby union Tests against Les Bleus and last beating them over a decade ago.
France Rugby World Cup form:
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France form (all competitions):
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Italy Rugby World Cup form:
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Italy form (all competitions):
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Team News
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Galthie has announced only two changes to the side that thrashed Namibia last week, one of which was enforced with Dupont sitting out the match and Maxime Lucu stepping into the scrum-half position.
Lucu partners with Bordeaux teammate Matthieu Jalibert as the starting half-backs while the remainder of the backline stays the same behind Jonathan Danty and Gael Fickou in midfield.
The other changes for Les Bleus come in the second row, with Gregory Alldritt replacing Francois Cros, while Anthony Jelonch will move to number six and Charles Ollivon takes over the captaincy responsibilities at number seven.
Crowley's selection for this match has raised a few eyebrows, and his pack will now feature a completely new front row made up of Simone Ferrari, Hame Faiva, and Pietro Ceccarelli.
There has also been some rejigging in the backline with Pierre Bruno on the right wing, Tommaso Allan returning to fly-half and Paolo Garbisi moving back to his more familiar inside-centre position.
France starting lineup: 15. Thomas Ramos, 14. Damian Penaud, 13. Gael Fickou, 12. Jonathan Danty, 11. Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10. Matthieu Jalibert, 9. Maxime Lucu, 8. Gregory Alldritt, 7. Charles Ollivon (c), 6. Anthony Jelonch, 5. Thibaud Flament, 4. Cameron Woki, 3. Uini Atonio, 2. Peato Mauvaka, 1. Cyril Baille
Replacements: 16. Pierre Bourgarit, 17. Reda Wardi, 18. Dorian Aldegheri, 19. Romain Taofifenua, 20. Francois Cros, 21. Baptiste Couilloud, 22. Yoram Moefana, 23. Melvyn Jaminet
Italy starting lineup: 15. Ange Capuozzo, 14. Pierre Bruno, 13. Juan Ignacio Brex, 12. Paolo Garbisi, 11. Montanna Ioane, 10. Tommaso Allan, 9. Stephen Varney, 8. Lorenzo Cannone, 7. Michele Lamaro (c), 6. Sebastian Negri, 5. Federico Ruzza, 4. Niccolo Cannone, 3. Pietro Ceccarelli, 2. Hame Faiva, 1. Simone Ferrari
Replacements: 16. Marco Manfredi , 17. Federico Zani, 18. Marco Riccioni, 19. David Sisi, 20. Manuel Zuliani, 21. Alessandro Fusco, 22. Luca Morisi, 23. Lorenzo Pan
Head To Head
These sides have met 47 times in the past and France have won 44 of those matches, while Italy have won three times.
We say: France 38-15 Italy
While Italy have got themselves in a position to qualify for the quarter-finals for the first time in their history, the manner in which they lost their last match makes it difficult to see how they can manage to pull off an upset here.
France have been almost flawless in this competition, and we fancy they will end the group stages with another win in this one.
No Data Analysis info
Devesh Jaganath
