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World Cup
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Second Round
Jun 6, 2024 at 1pm UK
Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground
Iran national football team

Hong Kong
2 - 4
Iran

Wai Ma (14'), Francis Pinto (59')
Pan Ngan (86')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Taremi (12' pen., 34' pen., 56'), Azmoun (65')
Jahanbakhsh (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Hong Kong and Iran, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iran

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Turkmenistan 0-1 Iran
Tuesday, March 26 at 3pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

We said: Hong Kong 0-3 Iran

 Iran showed their superior quality in last year's meeting with Hong Kong, and with their hosts unable to crack the top two in the final two games and the incentive of extending an unbeaten qualifying record, we back the visitors to pick up another resounding win on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 75.2%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Hong Kong had a probability of 9.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.47%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.02%), while for a Hong Kong win it was 2-1 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.

Result
Hong KongDrawIran
9.7% (0.827 0.83) 15.1% (0.456 0.46) 75.2% (-1.279 -1.28)
Both teams to score 52.22% (1.913 1.91)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.5% (0.599 0.6)33.5% (-0.597 -0.6)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.7% (0.681 0.68)55.3% (-0.677 -0.68)
Hong Kong Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.45% (2.142 2.14)43.55% (-2.138 -2.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.24% (1.731 1.73)79.75% (-1.727 -1.73)
Iran Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
92.52% (-0.123 -0.12)7.48% (0.125 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
73.13% (-0.32299999999999 -0.32)26.86% (0.325 0.32)
Score Analysis
    Hong Kong 9.7%
    Iran 75.2%
    Draw 15.1%
Hong KongDrawIran
2-1 @ 2.92% (0.228 0.23)
1-0 @ 2.71% (0.075 0.08)
2-0 @ 1.13% (0.095 0.1)
3-2 @ 1.05% (0.132 0.13)
Other @ 1.91%
Total : 9.7%
1-1 @ 7.02% (0.152 0.15)
2-2 @ 3.78% (0.273 0.27)
0-0 @ 3.26% (-0.103 -0.1)
3-3 @ 0.91% (0.109 0.11)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 15.1%
0-2 @ 10.95% (-0.49 -0.49)
0-3 @ 9.47% (-0.491 -0.49)
1-2 @ 9.1% (0.139 0.14)
0-1 @ 8.44% (-0.323 -0.32)
1-3 @ 7.87% (0.069 0.07)
0-4 @ 6.14% (-0.36 -0.36)
1-4 @ 5.1% (0.013 0.01)
2-3 @ 3.27% (0.216 0.22)
0-5 @ 3.18% (-0.208 -0.21)
1-5 @ 2.65% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-4 @ 2.12% (0.127 0.13)
0-6 @ 1.38% (-0.1 -0.1)
1-6 @ 1.14% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-5 @ 1.1% (0.059 0.06)
Other @ 3.29%
Total : 75.2%

How you voted: Hong Kong vs Iran

Hong Kong
23.1%
Draw
15.4%
Iran
61.5%
13
Head to Head
Jan 19, 2024 5.30pm
Group Stage
Hong Kong
0-1
Iran

Ming Wu (37'), Nunez (47')
Ghaedi (24')
> Preview
Nov 16, 2023 2.30pm
Second Round
Iran
4-0
Hong Kong
Azmoun (12', 15'), Taremi (87'), Rezaeian (90+2')
Khalilzadeh (82')

Nam Yue (17'), Hin Ting (38')
> Preview
Jun 3, 2021 3.30pm
Second Round
Iran
3-1
Hong Kong
Gholizadeh (23'), Amiri (61'), Ansarifard (84')
Torabi (90+1')
Kwang Cheng (85')
rhs 2.0
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