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Asian Cup
Iran national football team
Asian Cup | Semi-Finals
Feb 7, 2024 at 3pm UK
Al Thumama Stadium
Qatar national football team

Iran
2 - 3
Qatar

Azmoun (4'), Jahanbakhsh (51' pen.)
Torabi (18'), Hajsafi (21')
Khalilzadeh (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Gaber (17'), Afif (43'), Ali (82')
Ali Mukhtar (40'), Fathy (49'), Marquez (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Asian Cup clash between Iran and Qatar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Iran

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Iran 2-1 Japan
Saturday, February 3 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

Qatar

All competitions
Asian Cup
Last Game: Qatar 1-1 Uzbekistan (3-2 pen.)
Saturday, February 3 at 3.30pm in Asian Cup

We said: Iran 0-1 Qatar

 This match could go either way, as both sides have been pushed to the limit and found a way to escape some very difficult situations. We are giving the hosts the edge, however, because of their defensive organisation and experience in close games and knockout fixtures. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 61.42%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Qatar had a probability of 16.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Qatar win it was 0-1 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Qatar would win this match.

Result
IranDrawQatar
61.42% (-0.341 -0.34) 22.32% (0.193 0.19) 16.25% (0.152 0.15)
Both teams to score 46.97% (-0.255 -0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.48% (-0.514 -0.51)50.52% (0.517 0.52)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.56% (-0.455 -0.45)72.44% (0.458 0.46)
Iran Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.02% (-0.289 -0.29)15.98% (0.291 0.29)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.72% (-0.533 -0.53)45.28% (0.536 0.54)
Qatar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
55.9% (-0.11 -0.11)44.1% (0.112 0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.8% (-0.091999999999999 -0.09)80.2% (0.093999999999994 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Iran 61.41%
    Qatar 16.25%
    Draw 22.32%
IranDrawQatar
1-0 @ 12.92% (0.14 0.14)
2-0 @ 11.84% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.7% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-0 @ 7.24% (-0.066 -0.07)
3-1 @ 5.93% (-0.071999999999999 -0.07)
4-0 @ 3.32% (-0.063 -0.06)
4-1 @ 2.72% (-0.06 -0.06)
3-2 @ 2.43% (-0.038 -0.04)
5-0 @ 1.22% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.11% (-0.028 -0.03)
5-1 @ 1% (-0.032 -0.03)
Other @ 1.98%
Total : 61.41%
1-1 @ 10.57% (0.08 0.08)
0-0 @ 7.04% (0.145 0.15)
2-2 @ 3.97% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 22.32%
0-1 @ 5.77% (0.102 0.1)
1-2 @ 4.33% (0.02 0.02)
0-2 @ 2.36% (0.034 0.03)
1-3 @ 1.18% (0.002 0)
2-3 @ 1.08% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 1.53%
Total : 16.25%

How you voted: Winner Quarter-final 3 vs Winner Quarter-final 4

Winner Quarter-final 3
58.5%
Draw
16.9%
Winner Quarter-final 4
24.6%
142
Head to Head
Oct 17, 2023 7pm
Friendlies 1
Qatar
0-4
Iran

Fathy (18'), Ali (84')
Kanani (69', 79'), Jahanbakhsh (73'), Azmoun (75')
Beiranvand (26'), Ezatolahi (59')
Dec 31, 2018 5pm
International Friendlies
Qatar
1-2
Iran
Al Haidos (43' pen.)
Ro-Ro (54')
Taremi (17'), Azmoun (46')
rhs 2.0
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