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World Cup
Australia national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Oct 10, 2024 at 10.10am UK
Adelaide Oval
China national football team

Australia
vs.
China

FT

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Australia and China, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Australia

All competitions
Last Game: Indonesia 0-0 Australia
Tuesday, September 10 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Next Game: Japan vs. Australia
Tuesday, October 15 at 11.35am in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

China

All competitions
Last Game: China 1-2 Saudi Arabia
Tuesday, September 10 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia
Next Game: China vs. Indonesia
Tuesday, October 15 at 1pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

We said: Australia 2-0 China

 Hoping to bring a new energy to the Australian ranks, Popovic should be able to inspire his troops to a maiden win of Group C on Thursday night. China were a tough match for Saudi Arabia on home soil, although we are expecting the Dragon Team to struggle at the Adelaide Oval in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 66.4%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for China had a probability of 13.53%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.1%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.54%), while for a China win it was 0-1 (4.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.

Result
AustraliaDrawChina
66.4% (-10.403 -10.4) 20.07% (5.006 5.01) 13.53% (5.401 5.4)
Both teams to score 47.4% (2.434 2.43)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.56% (-7.378 -7.38)46.44% (7.382 7.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.28% (-7.335 -7.34)68.72% (7.34 7.34)
Australia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.91% (-4.666 -4.67)13.1% (4.6701 4.67)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.29% (-10.444 -10.44)39.72% (10.448 10.45)
China Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.54% (5.439 5.44)45.46% (-5.433 -5.43)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.7% (3.974 3.97)81.3% (-3.97 -3.97)
Score Analysis
    Australia 66.4%
    China 13.53%
    Draw 20.07%
AustraliaDrawChina
2-0 @ 12.3% (-0.82 -0.82)
1-0 @ 12.1% (1.5 1.5)
2-1 @ 9.7% (0.835 0.84)
3-0 @ 8.34% (-2.484 -2.48)
3-1 @ 6.57% (-0.737 -0.74)
4-0 @ 4.24% (-2.456 -2.46)
4-1 @ 3.34% (-1.18 -1.18)
3-2 @ 2.59% (0.123 0.12)
5-0 @ 1.72% (-1.589 -1.59)
5-1 @ 1.36% (-0.879 -0.88)
4-2 @ 1.32% (-0.209 -0.21)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 66.4%
1-1 @ 9.54% (2.376 2.38)
0-0 @ 5.95% (1.665 1.67)
2-2 @ 3.82% (0.83 0.83)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 20.07%
0-1 @ 4.69% (1.797 1.8)
1-2 @ 3.76% (1.341 1.34)
0-2 @ 1.85% (0.872 0.87)
2-3 @ 1.01% (0.331 0.33)
1-3 @ 0.99% (0.443 0.44)
Other @ 1.23%
Total : 13.53%

How you voted: Australia vs China

Australia
80.0%
Draw
13.7%
China
6.3%
95
Head to Head
Nov 16, 2021 3pm
Third Round
China
1-1
Australia
Lei (71' pen.)
Aloisio (41'), Zhang (90+4')
Duke (38')
Hrustic (50'), Degenek (90+5')
> Preview
Sep 2, 2021 7pm
Third Round
Australia
3-0
China
Mabil (24'), Boyle (26'), Duke (70')
Hrustic (81')

Shenchao (67'), Hongbo (71')
> Preview
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