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Serie A
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Serie A | Gameweek 16
Dec 18, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
Salernitana

Atalanta
4 - 1
Salernitana

Muriel (47'), Pasalic (52'), De Ketelaere (83'), Miranchuk (89')
Piero Gasperini (41'), Ruggeri (77')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Pirola (10')
Pirola (40'), Maggiore (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and Salernitana, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atalanta BC

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Rakow 0-4 Atalanta
Thursday, December 14 at 8pm in Europa League

Salernitana

All competitions
Serie A
Last Game: Salernitana 1-2 Bologna
Sunday, December 10 at 5pm in Serie A

We said: Atalanta BC 5-1 Salernitana

 Atalanta have returned to form in the past week and been excellent in front of goal, so they will be fully expectant of beating a side struggling at the foot of the table. While there has been just four goals in the other three meetings between these sides since Salernitana's promotion, a similar scoreline to the 8-2 recorded here 11 months ago looks the more likely outcome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 71.86%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 10.69%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.12%) and 3-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.3%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (3.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.

Result
Atalanta BCDrawSalernitana
71.86% (2.511 2.51) 17.45% (-1.387 -1.39) 10.69% (-1.126 -1.13)
Both teams to score 47.14% (0.837 0.84)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.03% (3.188 3.19)41.97% (-3.189 -3.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.63% (3.131 3.13)64.37% (-3.132 -3.13)
Atalanta BC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
89.66% (1.544 1.54)10.33% (-1.545 -1.55)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
66.21% (3.395 3.4)33.79% (-3.396 -3.4)
Salernitana Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.57% (0.027000000000001 0.03)47.42% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.19% (0.021000000000001 0.02)82.8% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Atalanta BC 71.86%
    Salernitana 10.69%
    Draw 17.45%
Atalanta BCDrawSalernitana
2-0 @ 12.62% (-0.17 -0.17)
1-0 @ 11.12% (-0.88 -0.88)
3-0 @ 9.55% (0.466 0.47)
2-1 @ 9.42% (-0.118 -0.12)
3-1 @ 7.13% (0.353 0.35)
4-0 @ 5.42% (0.581 0.58)
4-1 @ 4.04% (0.436 0.44)
3-2 @ 2.66% (0.134 0.13)
5-0 @ 2.46% (0.398 0.4)
5-1 @ 1.84% (0.298 0.3)
4-2 @ 1.51% (0.164 0.16)
6-0 @ 0.93% (0.199 0.2)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 71.86%
1-1 @ 8.3% (-0.653 -0.65)
0-0 @ 4.9% (-0.735 -0.74)
2-2 @ 3.51% (-0.041 -0.04)
Other @ 0.74%
Total : 17.45%
0-1 @ 3.66% (-0.546 -0.55)
1-2 @ 3.1% (-0.241 -0.24)
0-2 @ 1.36% (-0.202 -0.2)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 10.69%

How you voted: Atalanta vs Salernitana

Atalanta BC
86.1%
Draw
10.1%
Salernitana
3.8%
79
Head to Head
May 13, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 35
Salernitana
1-0
Atalanta
Candreva (90+3')
Lovato (59'), Coulibaly (76')

Scalvini (49'), de Roon (60')
> Preview
Jan 15, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 18
Atalanta
8-2
Salernitana
Boga (5'), Lookman (20' pen., 54'), Scalvini (23'), Koopmeiners (38'), Hojlund (41'), Ederson (61'), Zortea (85')
Dia (10'), Nicolussi (56')
> Preview
May 2, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 35
Atalanta
1-1
Salernitana
Pasalic (88')
Demiral (37'), Luis Palomino (38'), Freuler (90')
Ederson (27')
Djuric (38'), Verdi (58')
> Preview
Sep 18, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 4
Salernitana
0-1
Atalanta

Djuric (45'), Ranieri (60'), Obi (73'), Jaroszynski (86')
Zapata (75')
Maehle (16'), Toloi (38'), Demiral (45'), Malinovskyi (56')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta17131342192340
2Napoli17122326121438
3Inter Milan16114142152737
4Lazio1711153224834
5Fiorentina1694329131631
6Juventus17710028131531
7Bologna167722318528
8AC Milan167542516926
9Udinese177282126-523
10Roma175482323019
11Empoli174761619-319
12Torino175481722-519
13Genoa173771426-1216
14Lecce174491129-1816
15Parma173682333-1015
16Como173681830-1215
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1750122140-1915
18CagliariCagliari173591628-1214
19VeneziaVenezia1734101730-1313
20Monza171791523-810
> Serie A Full Table


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