Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queen of the South win with a probability of 38.14%. A win for Kelty Hearts had a probability of 36.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queen of the South win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.27%). The likeliest Kelty Hearts win was 1-0 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Kelty Hearts | Draw | Queen of the South |
36.2% ( 0.04) | 25.67% ( -0.01) | 38.14% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 55.38% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.3% ( 0.06) | 48.71% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.19% ( 0.05) | 70.82% ( -0.05) |
Kelty Hearts Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.88% ( 0.06) | 26.12% ( -0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.81% ( 0.07) | 61.19% ( -0.07) |
Queen of the South Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.96% ( 0.01) | 25.04% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.29% ( 0.02) | 59.72% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Kelty Hearts | Draw | Queen of the South |
1-0 @ 8.78% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.89% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.65% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.64% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.23% ( 0) Other @ 3.32% Total : 36.2% | 1-1 @ 12.15% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.54% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.65% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.66% | 0-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.42% ( -0) 0-2 @ 6.27% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.89% 0-3 @ 2.89% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.61% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.35% 0-4 @ 1% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.9% ( 0) Other @ 1.75% Total : 38.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arbroath | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 31 |
2 | Kelty Hearts | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 29 |
3 | StenhousemuirStenhousemuir | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 27 |
4 | Alloa AthleticAlloa | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 25 |
5 | Cove Rangers | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 25 |
6 | Montrose | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 23 |
7 | Queen of the SouthQotS | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 21 |
8 | Annan AthleticAnnan | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 32 | -16 | 18 |
9 | Inverness Caledonian ThistleInverness | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 10 |
10 | Dumbarton | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 24 | 36 | -12 | 4 |
> Scottish League One Full Table |