Sao Paulo will enter the second leg of their round of 16 Copa Sudamericana tie versus San Lorenzo needing a victory to have any hope of advancing into the next round when the two sides face each other on Thursday at Estadio do Morumbi.
Los Cuervos came away with a 1-0 victory in the opening leg, maintaining their 100% record at home versus Brazilian opponents in this competition.
Match preview
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Following a relatively smooth run through the group portion of this competition, the Sao Paulo momentum hit a snag last Thursday as they conceded their first goal at the 2023 Sudamericana and lost for the first time.
Dorival Junior's men are used to having the bulk of the possession but lately have not done much with it, without a goal in their previous three matches in all competitions, going winless in five successive encounters.
While losing when having 72% possession as they did in the opening leg has to be frustrating, Tricolor Paulista have been able to dig themselves out of deeper holes in some previous appearances at this competition, reversing a 3-1 semi-final deficit versus Atletico Goianiense last year, winning the second game 2-0 and advancing on penalties.
They have never lost at home to a club from Argentina in this competition, winning all but one encounter, with their only setback being a draw versus Defensa y Justicia in 2017 (1-1).
Sao Paulo have lost their previous four matches in all competitions when conceding the opening goal, and Tricolor Paulista have not scored an opening-half goal since netting two on Santos after 45 minutes last month, winning that league fixture 4-1.
Soberano are in a slump and struggling when behind, though they have stepped up when playing at home in this tournament, winning their last six knockout stage Sudamericana matches played at Estadio de Morumbi.
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It has not been the prettiest brand of football, but San Lorenzo continue to find ways to get by, holding Sao Paulo to just two shots on target despite only having 28% of the possession.
Having a small cushion is nice, but the last time Los Santos were in this position in the knockout stage of this competition, it did not end well for the club from the Boedo district in Buenos Aires as they lost 2-0 against Nacional in 2018 after winning the opening fixture 3-1 and were eliminated on away goals.
Ruben Dario Insua saw his side gain four points away from home in the group stage of this competition, with clean sheets in their first two encounters on the road, but in their last game as the visitors San Lorenzo were beaten 2-0 at Tigre, ending a four-match unbeaten run for them in all competitions.
El Ciclon have only played two previous matches at the Sudamericana on Brazilian soil, and they failed to score both times, losing at Santos in 2006 (1-0) but still advancing from that round of 16 tie and then playing Atletico Mineiro to a 0-0 draw in 2018.
San Lorenzo have only led heading into the half on one occasion so far at the 2023 Sudamericana, though they have suffered just one defeat at this year's tournament when leading or tied at the interval.
They have conceded six goals in seven matches at the Sudamericana this year but were the top defensive unit in the opening phase of the 2023 Argentine Primera Division campaign, giving up a mere 13 goals in 27 league fixtures.
Team News
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Igor Vinicius missed the opening leg of this tie due to a thigh problem, Gabriel Neves sat out with a broken rib, Patryck has a sore ankle, Erison could be back from his thigh injury near the end of this month and James Rodriguez is looking to make his Sao Paulo debut after signing a two-year contract at the end of July from Olympiacos.
Juan and Wellington Rato found the back of the net in their previous Sudamericana home fixture, while Rafael only had to make one stop for the clean sheet, as he has yet to concede in this year's competition.
Luciano, who led them with five goals in this competition last year, three of which came in the knockout stage, has only netted once at the 2023 Sudamericana, the same amount as their leading goalscorer domestically, Jonathan Calleri (six in the Brasileiro Serie A this year).
There was only one newcomer to the San Lorenzo starting 11 from matchday six of this tournament to the opening leg of this tie, with Gaston Campi coming in at the back instead of Gonzalo Lujan.
After failing to score in the opening five matches of this competition, Adam Bareiro has four goals in his last four Sudamericana encounters, putting home the winner last Thursday as Augusto Batalla made two stops to collect a clean sheet.
The last time they won a competitive road fixture Facundo Altamirano picked up a clean sheet when Gonzalo Maroni had the only goal in a 1-0 win domestically over Belgrano.
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Rafinha, Arboleda, Beraldo, Paulista; Alisson, Maia; Araujo, Luciano, David; Calleri
San Lorenzo possible starting lineup:
Batalla; Lujan, Campi, Hernandez; Giay, Elias, Maroni, Braida; Leguizamon, Blandi; Bareiro
We say: Sao Paulo 2-0 San Lorenzo (Sao Paulo to advance 2-1 on aggregate)
Although they are not at the top of their game right now, Dorival Junior always seems to push the right buttons to get his teams out of a slump, and having been in a similar position in the semi-finals last year should serve as a nice reminder that the current deficit they are faced with is far from insurmountable.
San Lorenzo have not been as tidy or organised defensively away from home, and we believe they will leave some gaps for Sao Paulo to exploit.
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