Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 55.45%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.52%) and 1-2 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (7.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.