Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 36.33%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 35.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 1-0 (11.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.