Premier League | Gameweek 20
Dec 30, 2023 at 3pm UK
Villa Park
Aston Villa3 - 2Burnley
The Match
Match Report
Douglas Luiz stepped up to score a late penalty to secure a 3-2 win over 10-man Burnley, sending the Villans to second place in the Premier League, level with Liverpool.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Burnley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Man Utd 3-2 Aston Villa
Tuesday, December 26 at 8pm in Premier League
Tuesday, December 26 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Burnley 0-2 Liverpool
Tuesday, December 26 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Tuesday, December 26 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 62.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 16.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Burnley |
62.67% ( 0.35) | 20.66% ( 0.09) | 16.66% ( -0.44) |
| Both teams to score 53.11% ( -1.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.22% ( -1.19) | 42.77% ( 1.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.82% ( -1.19) | 65.18% ( 1.19) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.94% ( -0.27) | 13.05% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 60.36% ( -0.55) | 39.63% ( 0.54) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.08% ( -1.24) | 38.92% ( 1.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.35% ( -1.19) | 75.65% ( 1.19) |
| Score Analysis |
Aston Villa 62.67%
Burnley 16.66%
Draw 20.66%
| Aston Villa | Draw | Burnley |
| 2-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.34) 1-0 @ 10.34% ( 0.43)2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.15)4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 1.48% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.21% Total : 62.67% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 5.08% ( 0.26)2-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.17)3-3 @ 1% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.66% | 0-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.08% Total : 16.66% |
How you voted: Aston Villa vs Burnley
Aston Villa
87.6%Draw
8.8%Burnley
3.5%113
Head to Head
May 19, 2022 8pm
Dec 17, 2020 6pm
Form Guide
