Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 43.81%. A win for Kidderminster Harriers had a probability of 29.01% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.72%) and 0-2 (8.28%). The likeliest Kidderminster Harriers win was 1-0 (9.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
Result | ||
Kidderminster Harriers | Draw | Chesterfield |
29.01% ( -0.79) | 27.18% ( -0.06) | 43.81% ( 0.84) |
Both teams to score 48.37% ( -0.22) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.33% ( -0.09) | 56.67% ( 0.09) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.37% ( -0.07) | 77.63% ( 0.07) |
Kidderminster Harriers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.08% ( -0.65) | 34.91% ( 0.65) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.34% ( -0.69) | 71.65% ( 0.68) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.31% ( 0.39) | 25.68% ( -0.39) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.4% ( 0.53) | 60.6% ( -0.53) |
Score Analysis |
Kidderminster Harriers | Draw | Chesterfield |
1-0 @ 9.44% ( -0.14) 2-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 4.97% ( -0.16) 3-1 @ 2.37% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.14% Total : 29.01% | 1-1 @ 12.82% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 8.97% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.17% | 0-1 @ 12.18% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 8.28% ( 0.21) 1-3 @ 3.95% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 3.75% ( 0.14) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.04) 0-4 @ 1.28% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.22% Total : 43.8% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | York City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 48 |
2 | Barnet | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 48 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 46 |
4 | Gateshead | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 44 |
5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 43 |
6 | Rochdale | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 36 |
7 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 42 | 36 | 6 | 35 |
8 | Halifax TownHalifax | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 35 |
9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 34 |
10 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 34 |
11 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 33 |
12 | Eastleigh | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 32 |
13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 32 |
14 | Tamworth | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 29 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 28 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 |
17 | Woking | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 23 |
19 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 23 |
20 | Fylde | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 22 |
21 | Braintree TownBraintree | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 20 |
22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 45 | -18 | 20 |
23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 15 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 23 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 54 | -37 | 9 |
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