Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 50.67%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 25.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.