Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 63.07%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for DC United had a probability of 16.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%), while for a DC United win it was 0-1 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.