Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 39.21%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 33.97% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.