Luxembourg will be looking to claim their second victory in the same World Cup qualification campaign for the first time in their history, when they host Azerbaijan on Wednesday evening.
The Red Lions beat the Republic of Ireland in their opening match, while the visitors are yet to claim any points from their first two Group A games.
Match preview
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Usually recognised as a European minnow on the footballing circuit, Luxembourg have recently shown signs of improvement, claiming four wins and a draw in their last 11 internationals, which for the Red Lions is a real achievement.
They opened their account in qualification with an impressive 1-0 victory away at the Republic of Ireland, with Gerson Rodrigues scoring the winner in the 85th minute.
Prior to that result, they had faced Wednesday's opponents Azerbaijan on two occasions during their Nations League campaign. Luc Holtz's men won 2-1 away from home in September 2020, before playing out a goalless draw on home soil two months later.
Luxembourg have attempted to qualify for a major tournament without succeeding more times than any other European nation.
The Red Lions, however, will be looking for their gradual rise on the international stage to continue with a positive result at the Stade de Luxembourg, as they aim to close in on the top two in Group A, Portugal and Serbia.
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Azerbaijan, meanwhile, have struggled in recent years, winning just three of their last 23 international matches across all competitions.
Nikola Jurcevic had a dismal campaign in charge during their Euro 2020 qualifying campaign, as his side accumulated just one point from their eight matches, finishing at the foot of their group and 11 points adrift of second-from-bottom Hungary.
Since Giovanni De Biasi took charge in July 2020, Azerbaijan's fortunes have yet to turn, winning just two of their last 13 games, both of which were international friendlies.
Milli Komanda have lost both of their opening two World Cup qualifiers, though there were signs of encouragement to take from their narrow 1-0 loss to Portugal, as a Maksim Medvedev own goal was all that separated to two sides.
Encounters against the likes of Luxembourg are ones which De Biasi will look to target if they are to claim any points from their qualifiers.
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Team News
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Luxembourg and New York City defender Maxime Chanot will serve a one-match suspension, while 21-year-old winger Vincent Thill is ruled out as he requires surgery on an injury.
However, his older brothers Olivier Thill and Sebastien Thill will both be in contention to feature in midfield alongside Chris Philipps.
Experienced striker Daniel da Mota, who received his 100th cap for the Red Lions during the last international break, is set to partner Rodrigues up front.
As for Azerbaijan, De Biasi is set to stick with a defensive back-five, which will likely include centre-backs Medvedev, Elvin Badalov and Hojjat Haghverdi as well as wing-backs Abbas Huseynov and Anton Krivotsyuk.
Twenty-five-year-old striker Ramil Sheydayev, who is seven goals away from reaching Gurban Gurbanov's record of 14 strikes for his country, is expected to lead the line in attack alongside Namik Alaskarov.
Luxembourg possible starting lineup:
Moris; Jans, Selimovic, Mahmutovic, Carlson, Pinto; Philipps, Martins Pereira, O. Thill; Da Mota, Rodrigues
Azerbaijan possible starting lineup:
Mahammadaliyev; A.Huseynov, Haghverdi, Medvedev, Badalov, Krivotsyuk; Makhmudov, Garayev, Ibrahimli; Alaskarov, Sheydayev
We say: Luxembourg 1-0 Azerbaijan
Both Luxembourg and Azerbaijan will view this fixture as a winnable game and one they will need to claim all three points from if they are to keep their slim hopes of World Cup qualification alive.
There is little to separate the two nations, but we feel that the hosts may edge it and secure a narrow victory on home soil.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 41.16%. A win for Luxembourg had a probability of 36.67% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.37%) and 1-3 (5.03%). The likeliest Luxembourg win was 2-1 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
