Legia Warsaw will be looking to advance to the third qualifying round of the 2021-22 Champions League when they travel to Tallinn to take on Flora on Tuesday evening.
The visitors will bring a 2-1 advantage into the second leg of their second qualifying round contest, with Rafael Lopes scoring a last-minute winner for the Polish side in their first meeting last week.
Match preview
Flora advanced to the second qualifying round of the Champions League courtesy of a five-goal aggregate success over Maltese side Hibernians, but they have work to do in order to progress to the third qualifying round, having suffered a 2-1 loss to Legia in the first leg last week.
Legia took the lead in the third minute of the contest through Bartosz Kapustka before Rauno Sappinen struck early in the second period to level the scores at 1-1, and it did appear that the two teams would be sharing the spoils, only for Rafael Lopes to net a second for Legia in the final exchanges.
Flora actually reached the playoff round of last season's Europa League, only to lose 3-1 to Dinamo Zagreb, and they will need to pull off a famous result to progress to the third qualifying round on Tuesday night.
The Estonian champions are actually deep into their domestic season and currently sit second in the table, having picked up 39 points from their 15 matches thus far; Jurgen Henn's side are unbeaten domestically since July 2020, but they did not have a match at the weekend ahead of this contest.
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Legia, meanwhile, started their top-flight Polish season on Saturday, recording a 1-0 win over Wisla Plock courtesy of a first-half effort from Ernest Muci.
The reigning Polish champions progressed to the second qualifying round of this competition courtesy of a 5-2 aggregate success over Bodo/Glimt, winning home and away against the Norwegian outfit.
Legia are regarded as the favourites to finish the job on Tuesday night, but they fell at this stage of the 2020-21 campaign before losing to Qarabag in the playoff round for the Europa League.
Legionisci competed in the group stage of the 2016-17 Champions League alongside Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon, though, ultimately finishing third in the section before losing to Dutch giants Ajax in the last-32 stage of the Europa League.
Czesław Michniewicz's side were far from at their best in the first leg against Flora, but the victory, albeit by a narrow margin, has put them in the driving seat to progress to the round of the competition.
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Team News
Flora did not pick up any injury problems during their first-leg defeat, while they were not in action at the weekend, meaning that the players have had plenty of time to recover.
Head coach Henn would have been pleased with the majority of what he saw in the first match, and it would not be a surprise to see the same starting XI sent onto the field for the second successive match.
Sappinen was on the scoresheet last time out, and the number 11 is expected to be supported by Martin Miller and Sergei Zenjov in the wide areas, with Konstain Vassiljev operating in midfield.
As for Legia, Kapustka had to be replaced in the seventh minute of the first leg, just four minutes after scoring, and the midfielder was not involved against Wisla Plock at the weekend.
As a result, there should be a spot in the middle of the park for Bartosz Slisz, but Michniewicz could otherwise keep faith with the same side that started the reverse fixture last week.
Tomas Pekhart should feature in the final third of the field alongside Mahir Emreli in what is likely to be a 3-5-2 formation, with Andre Martins and Luquinhas operating in the middle of the park.
Flora possible starting lineup:
Igonen; Lilander, Purg, Kuusk, Lukka, Ojamaa; Zenjov, Vassiljev, Soomets, Miller; Sappinen
Legia Warsaw possible starting lineup:
Boruc; Jedrzejczyk, Wieteska, Holownia; Juranovic, Slisz, Luquinhas, Martins, Mladenovic; Pekhart, Emreli
We say: Flora 1-2 Legia Warsaw
Flora are capable of making it a difficult second leg for Legia, but we are finding it difficult to back against the visitors, who are stronger across the park. Flora should have enough to get their name on the scoresheet once again, but we are fully expecting the Polish side to advance to the next round.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Legia Warsaw win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Flora had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Legia Warsaw win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.16%) and 0-2 (7.28%). The likeliest Flora win was 2-1 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Legia Warsaw would win this match.
