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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 50.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 24.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
Result | ||
Union Berlin | Draw | Mainz 05 |
50.29% (![]() | 24.89% (![]() | 24.82% (![]() |
Both teams to score 52% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.6% (![]() | 50.39% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.67% (![]() | 72.33% (![]() |
Union Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.95% | 20.05% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.73% (![]() | 52.26% (![]() |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.04% (![]() | 34.96% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.3% (![]() | 71.7% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Union Berlin | Draw | Mainz 05 |
1-0 @ 11.26% (![]() 2-1 @ 9.51% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 9.05% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 5.1% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 4.85% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.68% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 2.05% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.95% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.08% ( ![]() Other @ 2.77% Total : 50.29% | 1-1 @ 11.83% (![]() 0-0 @ 7.01% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 5% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 0.94% ( ![]() Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.88% | 0-1 @ 7.37% (![]() 1-2 @ 6.22% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 3.87% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 2.18% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.75% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 1.36% ( ![]() Other @ 2.08% Total : 24.82% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Heidenheim | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
3 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
5 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
6 | Wolfsburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
7 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
8 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
9 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
10 | Freiburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
11 | Hoffenheim | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
12 | Mainz 05Mainz | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
13 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
14 | Stuttgart | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
15 | Augsburg | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
16 | Holstein Kiel | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
17 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
18 | St Pauli | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
> Bundesliga Full Table |