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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 45.11%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 29.93% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
Result | ||
Morecambe | Draw | MK Dons |
29.93% ( -0.21) | 24.96% ( -0.02) | 45.11% ( 0.24) |
Both teams to score 55.78% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.69% ( 0.01) | 47.31% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.46% ( 0) | 69.54% ( -0) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.62% ( -0.14) | 29.39% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.63% ( -0.17) | 65.37% ( 0.18) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.99% ( 0.11) | 21.02% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.2% ( 0.17) | 53.8% ( -0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Morecambe | Draw | MK Dons |
1-0 @ 7.56% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 4.63% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 2.95% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 0.9% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.47% Total : 29.93% | 1-1 @ 11.79% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.18% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.95% | 0-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 9.2% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 7.51% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 4.79% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 3.91% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.87% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.52% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.61% Total : 45.11% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Walsall | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 43 |
2 | Port Vale | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 37 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 36 |
4 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 35 |
5 | Chesterfield | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 34 |
6 | AFC Wimbledon | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 33 |
7 | Notts County | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 21 | 10 | 1 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 31 |
9 | MK Dons | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 30 |
10 | Gillingham | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 30 |
11 | Salford City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 30 |
12 | Bradford CityBradford | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 28 |
13 | Bromley | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 27 |
14 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 27 |
15 | BarrowBarrow | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 26 |
16 | Newport CountyNewport | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 26 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 20 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 23 |
18 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 21 |
20 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 21 |
21 | Swindon TownSwindon | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 19 |
22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 19 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 20 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 15 |
24 | Morecambe | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 14 |
> League Two Full Table |