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Championship header 2

League Two
Crawley Town
League Two | Gameweek 26
Jan 1, 2024 at 3pm UK
The People's Pension Stadium
Swindon Town

Crawley
3 - 1
Swindon

Orsi (9', 53'), Roles (26')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Kemp (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League Two clash between Crawley Town and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crawley Town

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: MK Dons 2-0 Crawley
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

Swindon Town

All competitions
Last Game: Swindon 2-1 Forest Green
Friday, December 29 at 7.45pm in League Two

We said: Crawley Town 2-1 Swindon Town

 Clashes like this are often tight and intense, with both teams desperate not to lose ground as they are level on points. However, the recent trend in this fixture favours whichever team is at home and we think this trend will continue. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 39.36%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 38.1% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.62%) and 2-0 (4.85%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.

Result
Crawley TownDrawSwindon Town
39.36% (0.31 0.31) 22.54% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1) 38.1% (-0.218 -0.22)
Both teams to score 67.19% (0.375 0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.54% (0.48599999999999 0.49)33.46% (-0.491 -0.49)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.74% (0.553 0.55)55.25% (-0.559 -0.56)
Crawley Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.24% (0.34 0.34)17.75% (-0.345 -0.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.56% (0.588 0.59)48.44% (-0.594 -0.59)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.69% (0.114 0.11)18.3% (-0.119 -0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.61% (0.196 0.2)49.38% (-0.201 -0.2)
Score Analysis
    Crawley Town 39.36%
    Swindon Town 38.1%
    Draw 22.54%
Crawley TownDrawSwindon Town
2-1 @ 8.24% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 5.62% (-0.082000000000001 -0.08)
2-0 @ 4.85% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-1 @ 4.75% (0.055 0.05)
3-2 @ 4.03% (0.061 0.06)
3-0 @ 2.8% (0.022 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.05% (0.046 0.05)
4-2 @ 1.74% (0.046 0.05)
4-0 @ 1.21% (0.023 0.02)
4-3 @ 0.99% (0.03 0.03)
Other @ 3.07%
Total : 39.36%
1-1 @ 9.54% (-0.102 -0.1)
2-2 @ 7% (0.03 0.03)
0-0 @ 3.25% (-0.084 -0.08)
3-3 @ 2.28% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 0.47%
Total : 22.54%
1-2 @ 8.1% (-0.055999999999999 -0.06)
0-1 @ 5.52% (-0.122 -0.12)
0-2 @ 4.69% (-0.085 -0.09)
1-3 @ 4.58% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 3.96% (0.032 0.03)
0-3 @ 2.65% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-4 @ 1.95% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-4 @ 1.68% (0.02 0.02)
0-4 @ 1.13% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-4 @ 0.97% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 38.1%

How you voted: Crawley vs Swindon

Crawley Town
42.9%
Draw
14.3%
Swindon Town
42.9%
7
Head to Head
Aug 26, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 5
Swindon
6-0
Crawley
Kemp (34'), Young (47', 51', 60', 71'), Shade (90+9')

Williams (88')
May 8, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 46
Swindon
2-1
Crawley
Austin (41'), Cain (43')
Telford (62' pen.)
> Preview
Dec 3, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 20
Crawley
2-0
Swindon
Tsaroulla (79'), Powell (83')
> Preview
Mar 19, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 38
Crawley
3-1
Swindon
Appiah (29'), Nichols (72'), Hutchinson (90+1')
Francillette (59'), Marshall (84')
Davison (50')
Williams (56'), Odimayo (65')
Feb 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Swindon
1-1
Crawley
Gladwin (90+2')
Lyden (81'), McKirdy (83')
Powell (41' pen.)
Nichols (54'), Tsaroulla (65'), Powell (77')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall27184552282458
2Doncaster RoversDoncaster2814774031949
3Notts County27138643271647
4Bradford CityBradford27138638271147
5Crewe AlexandraCrewe281211535241147
6AFC Wimbledon26136738201845
7Port Vale2712963328545
8Salford City2712783124743
9Chesterfield27109843311239
10Grimsby Town28123133845-739
11MK Dons27115114138338
12Fleetwood TownFleetwood269983531436
13Bromley2781183635135
14Cheltenham TownCheltenham2798103639-335
15Colchester UnitedColchester2771373028234
16Swindon TownSwindon29810113843-534
17Gillingham2695122427-332
18BarrowBarrow2787122731-431
19Accrington StanleyAccrington2678113343-1029
20Harrogate TownHarrogate2985162440-1629
21Newport CountyNewport2676133446-1227
22Tranmere RoversTranmere2768132043-2326
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2756162141-2021
24Morecambe2755172242-2020
> League Two Full Table


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