Playing in their first-ever round of 16 fixture at the Leagues Cup, FC Cincinnati will host the Philadelphia Union on Tuesday at TQL Stadium.
In the previous round, the Orange and Blue defeated Santos Laguna 6-5 on penalties, while Philly kept CF Montreal off the scoresheet to earn a 2-0 victory.
Match preview
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We saw another poor start by Cincinnati on Friday, but once again, they found a way back, answering the Laguna opener on five minutes with an equaliser six minutes later.
It was the second time in successive contests that this team had given up the opening goal and won, scoring four unanswered times to defeat New York City FC 4-2 in the group phase.
FC Cincinnati are unbeaten in their last three matches across all competitions at TQL Stadium, two of which were victories after 90 minutes.
They have conceded multiple strikes in two of their previous three competitive fixtures versus Major League Soccer (MLS) opposition, while that victory over NYCFC ended a three-match losing run for them against American clubs.
Just like in 2023, Cincy have won their share of close games domestically this year, claiming a dozen one-goal triumphs in 2024, two fewer than the previous campaign.
Pat Noonan's men have won their previous four matches played against the Union, claiming a narrow 4-3 triumph at TQL Stadium in June.
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Injury-time goals in the first and second half last Friday were enough to see Philly advance into the last 16 of this tournament for a second time in successive campaigns.
Jim Curtin's men have not lost in normal time in any of their previous five matches across all competitions, winning four of those encounters after 90 minutes.
Tuesday will see them play an away contest in this competition for the first time, with the Union losing four successive matches as the visitors in MLS.
Philadelphia have given up a whopping 14 goals combined in those four away contests, allowing four goals in three of those outings.
The Union have failed to win four away matches in the 2024 MLS regular season when leading at the half, accounting for 11 points dropped.
Philly have not won a game against the Orange and Blue at TQL Stadium since the 2021 domestic campaign, when they hung on for a 2-1 victory.
Team News
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Alec Kann, the reserve goalkeeper for Cincinnati, was sidelined versus Santos Laguna due to a sore hip, Malik Pinto sat out with an ankle issue, while Nick Hagglund and Matt Miazga will not be available because of leg injuries.
Aaron Boupendza had his contract terminated by the league last week, Miles Robinson was back in the fold on Friday, his first match since returning from his stint with the USA at the Olympics, while reigning MLS MVP Luciano Acosta made his first appearance at the Leagues Cup this year.
Luca Orellano levelled their match with Laguna early into the opening half, while Aldo Lopez was the only one to miss in the penalty shootout, allowing the Orange and Blue to advance.
Isaiah LeFlore missed another match for the Union against Montreal as he is still recovering from a right knee injury, while Nathan Harriel and Jack McGlynn were back after being on international duty with the USA at the Olympics.
Danley Jean Jacques signed with Philly on Thursday, with the Haitian joining them from French side FC Metz through 2026 with options for 2027 and 2028.
Tai Baribo netted a brace against Le CFM, while Andre Blake collected his second clean sheet at the Leagues Cup this year, saving two shots.
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Celentano; Robinson, Keller, Murphy; Yedlin, Nwobodo, Bucha, Asad; Orellano, Kubo; Baird
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Harriel, Glesnes, Elliott, Wagner; Martinez; Sullivan, Bedoya; Gazdag; Baribo, Uhre
We say: FC Cincinnati 1-1 Philadelphia Union (Philadelphia advances on penalties)
Even though they are undefeated in the Leagues Cup this year, the Orange and Blue have yet to perform well for 90 minutes, and we believe the experience of the Union and their recent strong form will propel them into the quarter-finals by a thin margin.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 62.13%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 17.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 1-0 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.22%), while for a Philadelphia Union win it was 1-2 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
Joel Lefevre
