
FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 6, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Riverside Stadium

Middlesbrough0 - 1Aston Villa
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Middlesbrough 1-3 Coventry
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-2 Burnley
Saturday, December 30 at 3pm in Premier League
Saturday, December 30 at 3pm in Premier League
We said: Middlesbrough 1-3 Aston Villa
The third-round curse has plagued Aston Villa for almost eight years now, but with Middlesbrough working around a personnel crisis, the Lions ought to avoid making unwanted history at the Riverside. A recent lack of defensive discipline from the Lions offers Carrick's decimated squad some hope of a surprise beating, but even with a few first-teamers rested, Emery's men ought to reach the fourth round for the first time since the 2015-16 campaign. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.46%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Aston Villa |
40.42% (![]() | 24.01% (![]() | 35.57% (![]() |
Both teams to score 61.24% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.92% (![]() | 41.08% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.53% (![]() | 63.47% (![]() |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.47% (![]() | 20.52% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.97% (![]() | 53.03% (![]() |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.06% (![]() | 22.94% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.28% (![]() | 56.71% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough 40.42%
Aston Villa 35.57%
Draw 24%
Middlesbrough | Draw | Aston Villa |
2-1 @ 8.69% (![]() 1-0 @ 7.46% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 5.9% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 4.59% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 3.38% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 3.12% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 1.82% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.34% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.23% ( ![]() Other @ 2.9% Total : 40.42% | 1-1 @ 10.97% (![]() 2-2 @ 6.4% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 4.71% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.66% ( ![]() Other @ 0.27% Total : 24% | 1-2 @ 8.08% (![]() 0-1 @ 6.93% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 5.1% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 3.97% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 3.14% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 2.5% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 1.46% ( ![]() 2-4 @ 1.16% ( ![]() 0-4 @ 0.92% ( ![]() Other @ 2.31% Total : 35.57% |
How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Aston Villa
Middlesbrough
22.4%Draw
11.8%Aston Villa
65.8%76
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2019 3pm
Dec 1, 2018 5.30pm
Dec 30, 2017 3pm
Form Guide