FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 6, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough0 - 1Aston Villa
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Middlesbrough 1-3 Coventry
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-2 Burnley
Saturday, December 30 at 3pm in Premier League
Saturday, December 30 at 3pm in Premier League
We said: Middlesbrough 1-3 Aston Villa
The third-round curse has plagued Aston Villa for almost eight years now, but with Middlesbrough working around a personnel crisis, the Lions ought to avoid making unwanted history at the Riverside. A recent lack of defensive discipline from the Lions offers Carrick's decimated squad some hope of a surprise beating, but even with a few first-teamers rested, Emery's men ought to reach the fourth round for the first time since the 2015-16 campaign. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.46%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Aston Villa |
40.42% ( 0.29) | 24.01% ( 0.06) | 35.57% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 61.24% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
