FA Cup | Third Round
Jan 6, 2024 at 5.30pm UK
Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough0 - 1Aston Villa
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Middlesbrough 1-3 Coventry
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Aston Villa 3-2 Burnley
Saturday, December 30 at 3pm in Premier League
Saturday, December 30 at 3pm in Premier League
We said: Middlesbrough 1-3 Aston Villa
The third-round curse has plagued Aston Villa for almost eight years now, but with Middlesbrough working around a personnel crisis, the Lions ought to avoid making unwanted history at the Riverside. A recent lack of defensive discipline from the Lions offers Carrick's decimated squad some hope of a surprise beating, but even with a few first-teamers rested, Emery's men ought to reach the fourth round for the first time since the 2015-16 campaign. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 35.57% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.46%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Aston Villa |
40.42% ( 0.29) | 24.01% ( 0.06) | 35.57% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 61.24% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.92% ( -0.33) | 41.08% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.53% ( -0.34) | 63.47% ( 0.34) |
| Middlesbrough Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.47% ( -0.01) | 20.52% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.97% ( -0.01) | 53.03% ( 0.02) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.06% ( -0.33) | 22.94% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.28% ( -0.49) | 56.71% ( 0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough 40.42%
Aston Villa 35.57%
Draw 24%
| Middlesbrough | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.46% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 4.59% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.38% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.9% Total : 40.42% | 1-1 @ 10.97% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.27% Total : 24% | 1-2 @ 8.08% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 5.1% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.97% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.31% Total : 35.57% |
How you voted: Middlesbrough vs Aston Villa
Middlesbrough
22.4%Draw
11.8%Aston Villa
65.8%76
Head to Head
Mar 16, 2019 3pm
Dec 1, 2018 5.30pm
Dec 30, 2017 3pm
Form Guide
