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Europa League
Sevilla logo
Europa League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 9, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

Sevilla
2 - 0
Fenerbahce

Jordan (56'), Lamela (85')
Telles (3'), Gil (45+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Kadioglu (45+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Sevilla and Fenerbahce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sevilla

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Atletico 6-1 Sevilla
Saturday, March 4 at 8pm in La Liga

Fenerbahce

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Kayserispor 1-2 Fenerbahce
Saturday, March 4 at 4pm in Turkish Super Lig

We said: Sevilla 3-1 Fenerbahce

 While Sevilla's domestic form should be considered ahead of this contest, they tend to be a different animal on the continental scene, especially in this competition. Although they may struggle to keep out Fenerbahce for the 90 minutes, we still expect victory for the home side. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sevilla win with a probability of 42.59%. A win for Fenerbahce had a probability of 32.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sevilla win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.82%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Fenerbahce win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sevilla would win this match.

Result
SevillaDrawFenerbahce
42.59% (0.0050000000000026 0.01) 24.8% (0.0029999999999966 0) 32.61% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Both teams to score 57.58% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.49% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)45.51% (0.0049999999999955 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.16% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)67.84% (0.0069999999999908 0.01)
Sevilla Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.6% (0.0040000000000049 0)21.4%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.61% (0.0030000000000001 0)54.39%
Fenerbahce Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.26% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)26.74% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.99% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)62.01% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Sevilla 42.59%
    Fenerbahce 32.61%
    Draw 24.79%
SevillaDrawFenerbahce
2-1 @ 8.97% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-0 @ 8.82% (0.0019999999999989 0)
2-0 @ 6.8% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-1 @ 4.61%
3-0 @ 3.5% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 3.04%
4-1 @ 1.78%
4-0 @ 1.35%
4-2 @ 1.17%
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 42.59%
1-1 @ 11.63%
2-2 @ 5.92%
0-0 @ 5.72% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.34%
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.79%
1-2 @ 7.68% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-1 @ 7.55% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.98% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-3 @ 3.38% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-3 @ 2.6% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.19%
1-4 @ 1.11%
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 32.61%

How you voted: Sevilla vs Fenerbahce

Sevilla
64.9%
Draw
10.1%
Fenerbahce
25.0%
208
rhs 2.0
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