Copa Libertadores | First Round | 2nd Leg
Feb 13, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Alejandro Villanueva
Alianza Lima3 - 1Nacional
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Alianza Lima and Club Nacional.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Nacional 1-1 Alianza Lima
Thursday, February 6 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Thursday, February 6 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 1-1 Alianza Lima
Thursday, February 6 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Thursday, February 6 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Lima win with a probability of 67.12%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Club Nacional had a probability of 11.27%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alianza Lima win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.98%) and 3-0 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.63%), while for a Club Nacional win it was 0-1 (5.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alianza Lima would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Alianza Lima | Draw | Club Nacional |
67.12% ( -0.14) | 21.61% ( 0.07) | 11.27% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 36.91% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.86% ( -0.13) | 57.14% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.99% ( -0.11) | 78.01% ( 0.1) |
| Alianza Lima Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.66% ( -0.09) | 16.34% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 54.06% ( -0.17) | 45.94% ( 0.16) |
| Club Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.12% ( 0.03) | 55.88% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 11.6% ( 0.01) | 88.4% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
Alianza Lima 67.12%
Club Nacional 11.27%
Draw 21.61%
| Alianza Lima | Draw | Club Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 16.54% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 14.98% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 9.05% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.72% ( -0)3-1 @ 5.27% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 4.1% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.39% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.53% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.07% Total : 67.12% | 1-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.13% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 2.54% ( 0)Other @ 0.32% Total : 21.61% | 0-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 2.8% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.6% Total : 11.27% |
Head to Head
Feb 6, 2025 12.30am
Form Guide
