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Cardiff City logo
Championship | Gameweek 38
Mar 16, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Cardiff City Stadium
Stoke logo

Cardiff
2 - 1
Stoke

Doyle (39'), Hugill (43')
Hugill (68')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Baker (23')

Preview: Cardiff City vs. Stoke City - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Championship clash between Cardiff City and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

With pressure building on Michael O'Neill, Stoke City will aim to break a seven-game winless run in the Championship when they travel to Cardiff City on Wednesday.

The Potters were held by basement side Peterborough United at the weekend, while their hosts drew with Preston North End after important back-to-back wins.


Match preview

Cardiff City manager Steve Morison reacts on February 6, 2022© Reuters

After a strong start to the campaign, Stoke City have experienced a slip down the Championship as a result of a seven-game run without a victory.

Following draws with Nottingham Forest and Birmingham City, Michael O'Neill's side suffered consecutive defeats at the hands of Luton Town, Bournemouth and Blackpool, before only snatching a point late on against relegation-threatened Barnsley.

The Potters finally looked to have arrested their slump at the weekend, as they led basement side Peterborough United 2-1 going into added time through Jacob Brown and Lewis Baker, only for them to concede a penalty which Jonson Clarke-Harris converted to force a share of the spoils.

Such a result has led to increased scrutiny of the manager, and, having now dropped to 15th spot, the Staffordshire outfit will be desperate to reverse their fortunes to prevent a further slide.

Stoke City manager Michael O'Neill on February 8, 2022© Reuters

That will be no easy task, though, as they travel to a Cardiff City side who are going in the other direction, having recently bounced back from a tough run of their own.

Under the management of Steve Morison, the Bluebirds looked set to be involved in the scrap at the bottom of the table heading into the final straight of the season, as they suffered back-to-back defeats after a draw with Blackpool in February. 

That left them on 36 points from 34 Championship outings, but the Welsh outfit have majorly improved their standing since the beginning of March, starting with a 1-0 victory over Derby County thanks to Uche Ikpeazu's late goal.

Morison's men then made it back-to-back wins as Isaak Davies and Rubin Colwill netted second-half goals to overturn a deficit and seal a 2-1 win away at promotion-chasing Queens Park Rangers.

Having most recently earned a creditable point following a goalless draw with Preston North End, the Bluebirds have taken themselves out of any possible danger at the bottom of the division, and they will now turn their focus upwards with the chance to leapfrog Swansea City and move level on points with their visitors if they can post another victory on Wednesday.

Cardiff City Championship form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • D

Stoke City Championship form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D

Stoke City form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D



Team News

Cardiff City's Rubin Colwill celebrates scoring their first goal with Mark McGuinness on February 6, 2022© Reuters

Cardiff City will remain without forward Max Watters and defenders Sean Morrison and Curtis Nelson, leaving Perry Ng, Aden Flint and Mark McGuinness to line up across the defence.

Jordan Hugill will likely be given the nod over Uche Ikpeazu in attack, while Rubin Colwill and Isaak Davies will battle to partner the target man.

Attacking midfielder Mark Harris will also be vying for a start, although Morison has tended to deploy a flat central trio recently, with Joe Ralls playing a key role.

Stoke City have a long list of their own injuries to deal with, as defenders Liam Moore, Harry Souttar and Morgan Fox are ruled out alongside key forwards Nick Powell and Jaden Philogene-Bidace.

However, Josh Maja and Tyrese Campbell will return to contention, and they could both feature in the front line from the outset alongside Jacob Brown.

Lewis Baker has been a fixture in the midfield since his recent arrival, and he should again operate with Joe Allen and Jordan Thompson in the engine room.

Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Smithies; Ng, Flint, McGuinness; Drameh, Vaulks, Ralls, Wintle, Bagan; Hugill, Colwill

Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Bonham; Wilmot, Chester, Harwood-Bellis, Tymon; Allen, Baker, Thompson; Campbell, Maja, Brown


SM words green background

We say: Cardiff City 2-1 Stoke City

The two sides meet with contrasting levels of confidence, and we back the Bluebirds to continue their improvement.

O'Neill will feel that his side need a victory to salvage their season and for him to gain some favour back in Staffordshire, but we expect them to fall just short given their lack of momentum.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 2.5:data



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Written by
Sam Varley

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 36.64%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.71%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 1-0 (11.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Cardiff City in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Cardiff vs Stoke

Cardiff City
64.9%
Draw
24.7%
Stoke City
10.4%
77
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General view of Stoke City's bet365 Stadium taken March 2018
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Stoke City: Transfer ins and outs - January 2022
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