The USA can retain their CONCACAF Nations League title when they host Canada in the final from Allegiant Stadium in Nevada on Sunday.
On Thursday, the Canucks scored once in each half to blank Panama 2-0, while the Yanks maintained their recent dominance over their Central American rivals, claiming a 3-0 victory over Mexico.
Match preview
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It had been over two months since this Canadian team had played together on the international stage, and it showed on Thursday early on, as they looked slow and a little out of sorts when in possession.
Fortunately for John Herdman, his experienced group managed to shake off the rust and, ultimately, came away with a comfortable victory, advancing to the final of a major continental tournament for the first time since capturing the 2000 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
At the World Cup in Qatar last year, the Canucks missed numerous opportunities to make a statement, losing all three group games, missing a penalty kick in their loss to Belgium (1-0), then squandering a 1-0 lead to fall against Croatia (4-1) and dropping a 2-1 decision versus Morocco.
Canada have not missed their opportunities on the A side of the Nations League this season, scoring more goals than anyone in the group phase (11).
Most of the squad chosen for this week's encounters were a part of the World Cup team in Qatar, with the Canucks winning four of their previous five fixtures against CONCACAF opponents.
They are a talented group with lots of quality all over the field and with experience playing in big games for their club sides in Europe, and they added a little more experience on the bench recently as Herdman named former England women's manager Phil Neville as an assistant.
Canada had won every match in which they had scored first between a 3-2 loss to Haiti at the end of June 2019 and their defeat at the World Cup last year versus Croatia.
At the inaugural CONCACAF Nations League campaign, which kicked off in 2019, the Canadians ended a drought of over 34 years without a victory against the United States (2-0), though they have not beaten them on American soil since a 3-2 triumph in July 1957.
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We are nearly six months into 2023, and we now know who will be in charge of the American side for the future with Gregg Berhalter to take charge of the team permanently after the Gold Cup.
Names like Jesse Marsch and Patrick Vieira were heavily linked to the Yanks, but instead the program went with a familiar face in Berhalter despite a domestic scandal concerning him which broke after their 2022 World Cup campaign.
The team will be under the guidance of BJ Callaghan for now though, and he won his first match in charge Thursday since taking over from Anthony Hudson.
While they finished third in the final round of 2022 World Cup qualifying, the Yanks are still the highest-ranked team in CONCACAF according to FIFA (13th) and have lifted the last two major trophies in this region, claiming the Nations League and Gold Cup crown.
The USA have only suffered one defeat in their entire Nations League history, which came against Canada nearly four years ago, while they have only lost one home fixture since October 2019, falling 2-1 in a friendly versus Serbia earlier this year.
Like Canada, most of these American players apply their trade in Europe, many flourishing on big clubs around the globe in what could be the best generation in the history of this program.
Whoever is eventually named the full-time coach of this team will have plenty of time to prepare them for the upcoming World Cup, which will be co-hosted by themselves, Canada and Mexico in 2026.
Since 2016, the Yanks have only suffered one defeat when scoring the opening goal in a game, with that loss coming earlier this year to the Serbians.
They have won their last six knockout stage affairs while winning the previous Nations League and Gold Cup finals in extra time.
Team News
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Jonathan Osorio, who has missed a decent portion of the MLS campaign with a lower-body injury at Toronto, was on the field for Canada Thursday, replacing Tajon Buchanan after an hour, while Victor Loturi, Moise Bombito, Dominick Zator and Tom McGill will have to wait for at least another match to earn their first appearance with the senior side as they were all on the bench for their semi-final clash and their record cap holder and captain Atiba Hutchinson will retire from international football following this encounter.
Lille striker Jonathan David has three goals in his last three games for Canada, as he notched the 25th strike of his international career on Thursday, moving into a tie for the Nations League lead for goals alongside Jesus Ferreira and Ricardo Pepi, while he is now just three back of Cyle Larin for the most in Canadian history, Alphonso Davies notched his 13th in Canadian colours, drawing even with Junior Hoilett for 10th with 14, while Milan Borjan collected a clean sheet.
Davies and Lucas Cavallini scored when they defeated the Yanks at home in this competition in 2019, while Larin and Sam Adekugbe found the back of the net when they 2-0 against them in a 2022 World Cup qualifier in Hamilton.
Weston McKennie, who had appeared in every one of their Nations League encounters, will not be on the field Sunday, nor will Sergino Dest, having each been red-carded in the second half versus Mexico this week.
Folarin Balogun, who scored 21 times for Reims during the recent Ligue 1 campaign, made his debut for the US, Chris Richards claimed his first cap in that encounter since featuring last January versus Canada, while Giovanni Reyna was on the field for the Americans for the first time since March.
Christian Pulisic notched a brace in their semi-final triumph versus Mexico, the 24th and 25th of his international career, moving beyond Joe-Max Moore for sixth all-time for the US, while Ricardo Pepi scored his fourth of the tournament and Matt Turner picked up a shutout.
Reyna, McKennie and Pulisic scored in their 2021 Nations League final triumph over Mexico (3-2), while Brenden Aaronson had the only goal the last time they hosted Canada, drawing them 1-1 in a 2022 World Cup qualifying encounter.
Canada possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Johnston, Miller, Vitoria, Adekugbe; Laryea, Eustaquio, Davies; David, Larin, Buchanan
USA possible starting lineup:
Turner; Scally, M. Robinson, Zimmerman, A. Robinson; Musah; Weah, De la Torre, Pulisic; Balogun, Pepi
We say: Canada 1-1 USA (Canada wins on penalties)
The Canadians have proven they are a force to be reckoned with in CONCACAF, and their offensive depth and continuity seems to be a little sharper than the Americans, which is why we believe they are due to lift some silverware at long last this weekend.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Canada had a probability of 38.29% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.06%) and 2-3 (5.02%). The likeliest Canada win was 2-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA would win this match.
Joel Lefevre
