Bielefeld are likely to make this a tough test for Leverkusen on Saturday, particularly with Schick missing for the hosts on the day.
As a result, we cannot see this being a comfortable home win for Die Werkself like many would expect, but we are predicting a home win by a narrow margin nonetheless, with their defeat last week being an exception during a strong run of form for the Champions League hopefuls.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 74.38%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 10.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 3-0 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.89%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 1-2 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
