Botafogo come into the second leg of their Copa Brasil tie facing a massive deficit as they host America Mineiro at Estadio Nilton Santos on Thursday with a spot in the quarter-finals at stake.
Coelho took the opening match 3-0 at the end of June and now have an opportunity to advance into the last eight for the second time in three years.
Match preview
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A poor start in the first match a couple of weeks ago seemed to shake their confidence early on, and it only got worse from there, as Fogo now have a tall task ahead of them to try to reverse a three-goal deficit.
Conceding the opening goal has practically deflated this group and their energy on the field throughout the campaign, losing five of their last six games when allowing the opener and failing to tally themselves in each of those losses.
Luis Castro has constantly praised the importance of patient possession by breaking the lines in a controlled manner, which is a difficult approach to have when you find yourself down by a pair of goals at the half as they did against America in the first leg.
The road to the quarter-finals may seem long right now, but this team have shown that scoring three goals is well within their capabilities, winning both of their matches in the third round by a 3-0 score, while also tallying three times in league play on three separate occasions.
When you add to that the fact that they have never lost to America on home soil, twice scoring three or more goals, while also posting two clean sheets, there is a slight reason for optimism heading into this clash on Thursday.
At the moment, Fogo are in a slump offensively, without a goal in three of their previous four games in all competitions, while winning only one of their last four contests played on home soil.
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America Mineiro came out hungry and determined in the opening leg at home last month, ending what was at the time a five-match winless run in which they had failed to tally in each of those games.
Vagner Mancini could not have expected much more from his players in that encounter, as they fired seven shots on target and did an outstanding job at cutting off the open spaces in the penalty area.
The next step for them would be to improve their play away from home, where they have looked passive when in possession and afraid to take risks, without a goal in four straight road encounters, conceding in injury-time on Monday, as they fell 1-0 to Internacional.
At this competition in 2020, Coehlo found themselves in front after the opening leg in two separate knockout stage ties and were able to finish the job both times, eliminating Corinthians and Internacional in the last 16 and quarter-finals respectively that year after holding a 1-0 lead following the first leg.
Mineiro have yet to concede a goal in three matches so far at this tournament, though you would think they will be mindful of the fact that they have suffered some lopsided road defeats already this year, namely on the final matchday of their Copa Libertadores group stage campaign when they fell 3-0 at Independiente del Valle.
While they are rarely caught out on the counter, their lone striker up front has often been isolated, while struggling to find enough quality movements to get open, with Coelho scoring the fewest goals to this point of the Brasileiro Serie A campaign (12).
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Team News
It has been nearly a month since Botafogo found the back of the net at home when Kayque scored in the 61st minute back on June 16 to defeat Sao Paulo 1-0 in a match where Gatito Fernandez made two saves to preserve the clean sheet.
Matheus Nascimento and Kanu remain tied for the team lead in goals at this tournament with two each, while Erison, who returned from injury last weekend in a 2-0 defeat at Cuiaba, is still searching for his first of the competition, after leading them domestically with six goals.
Victor Sa (physical discomfort), Diego Goncalves (thigh), Gustavo Sauer (ankle) and Rafael (Achilles tendon) are all expected to miss this encounter through injury.
Wellington Paulista, Danilo Avelar and Ale all tallied for Mineiro in the opening leg, with Patric notching a pair of assists and the other one coming from Marlon.
Goalkeeper Matheus Cavichioli has only conceded one goal in his last three matches in all competitions, and Henrique Almeida had their lone tally in a 1-0 home victory over Goias at the start of July.
Felipe Azevedo and Aloisio have not found the back of the net at this tournament, despite each scoring twice this season in league play.
Wellington Paulista and Everaldo could be out of this match because of muscle injuries, while Orlando Berrio continues to be bothered by a problem in his knee.
Botafogo possible starting lineup:
Fernandez; Kanu, Carli, Saravia; Hugo, Del Piage, De Paula, Borges; Nascimento, Lopes, Erison
America Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Cavichioli; Patric, Patrick, Eder, Avelar; Kal; Ramirez, Juninho, Ale, Azevedo; Paulista
We say: Botafogo 1-0 America Mineiro
Coelho have problems with their organisation and structure away from home, so we expect Fogo to have some scoring opportunities. However, the home side have not been consistently sharp enough in the final third to suggest they can win in the same convincing fashion that America did last month.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
