Bayern Munich entertain Red Bull Salzburg in the Champions League on Wednesday, with a win guaranteeing the hosts safe passage through to the knockout stages of the competition for the 13th consecutive season.
The Bavarians won the recent meeting between the two sides 6-2 in Austria, with a flurry of late Bayern goals making the result a little more one-sided than the reality of the match.
Match preview
© Reuters
Last season's champions have looked in formidable form so far this season, topping the Bundesliga after eight games and winning all three of their Champions League games in Group A.
Beating Salzburg and qualifying for the last 16 with two matches to spare would be a major boost to Hansi Flick's side, who have suffered with injuries in recent weeks and would greatly benefit from the option to rest players in what would essentially be European dead rubbers, depending on Atletico Madrid's results and whether finishing ahead of them in the group is considered a major priority.
Indeed, without Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka or Corentin Tolisso in midfield from the start, the Bavarians looked a little out of sorts in the 1-1 home draw with Werder Bremen on Saturday, allowing title rivals Borussia Dortmund to close the gap having beaten them in the previous round of fixtures prior to the international break.
However, with the likes of Robert Lewandowski, Kingsley Coman, Thomas Muller and Leroy Sane all fit and firing, they still possess more firepower than any side in Europe and Salzburg will have an extremely tough job containing them.
© Reuters
After almost qualifying for the knockout stages for the first time in the club's history last season, Red Bull Salzburg have been a little disappointing this time around, gaining a solitary point from their first three matches in Group A.
Jesse Marsch's side have led in all three matches, including taking an early lead against Bayern before pegging them back to 2-2 in the second half, but conceding 11 goals in three games has certainly not been a recipe for success.
In Dominik Szoboszlai, who scored against Lokomotiv Moscow and Atletico, they have one of Europe's most highly rated young players. The 20-year-old has been linked with a move to Arsenal in recent weeks, with the Hungary international's last minute strike against Iceland dramatically taking his nation to Euro 2020.
Marsch will need his key player to be firing on all cylinders if his side are to have any chance of gaining a positive result to Bayern, which realistically they need in order to have any chance of remaining in the competition.
Bayern Munich Champions League form: WWW
Bayern Munich form (all competitions): WWWWWD
Red Bull Salzburg Champions League form: DLL
Red Bull Salzburg form (all competitions): WLWLDL
Team News
© Reuters
Kimmich is unlikely to return until the New Year having sustained meniscus damage in the win against Dortmund, with Alphonso Davies out until early December with a torn ankle ligament.
Lucas Hernandez, who has capably replaced Davies in recent weeks, limped off early against Bremen having suffered bruising to his pelvic region after a collision with Theodor Gebre Selassie and may not be risked against Salzburg.
Tolisso has resumed full training following his minor injury sustained on international duty with France, but it would be no surprise to see him also saved until the weekend.
Zlatko Junuzovic and Masaya Okugawa, who have both scored in this season's competition, played no part in the weekend's league defeat to Sturm Graz and are doubtful to feature against Bayern.
Star striker Patson Daka is definitely out with a thigh injury, while Antoine Bernede's shin injury is likely to keep the midfielder on the sidelines until late January.
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Sule, Alaba, Sarr; Martinez, Goretzka; Sane, Muller, Gnabry; Lewandowski
Red Bull Salzburg possible starting lineup:
Stankovic; Nissen, Ramalho, Wober, Ulmer; Mwepu, Kamara, Seiwald; Berisha, Szoboszlai; Koita
We say: Bayern Munich 4-1 Red Bull Salzburg
With Salzburg potentially missing key attacking players and struggling to fight the right balance defensively, we can see Bayern running riot in order to secure qualification for the knockout stages.
While their midfield isn't fully functioning at present, Flick's side simply possess too much quality in and around both boxes for Salzburg to gain the result they may well require to realistically stay in the competition.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 58.88%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 18.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.11%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.91%), while for a Red Bull Salzburg win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
