World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Africa | Group Stage

Nov 17, 2023 at 4pm UK

Konkola Stadium

Zambia
4 - 2
Congo

Daka (5', 90+2'), Banda (43'), Sakala (69')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Ganvoula (13'), Bassouamina (15')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's World Cup Qualifying - Africa clash between Zambia and Congo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Zambia

All competitions

Last Game: Zambia 3-0 Uganda
Tuesday, October 17 at 4pm in International Friendlies

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Zambia	0	0	0
2	Morocco	0	0	0
3	Congo DR	0	0	0
4	Tanzania	0	0	0

Congo

All competitions

Last Game: Gambia 2-2 Congo
Sunday, September 10 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Congo	3	3	7
2	Angola	3	1	5
3	Burkina Faso	3	-2	2
4	Cameroon	3	-2	1

Zambia will be licking their lips as they go up against a Congo side who have managed just one win in six since the turn of the year. The Chipolopolo have been rock-solid on home soil over the last two years and we fancy them to claim a comfortable opening-day victory on Thursday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 50.39%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Congo had a probability of 23.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.72%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Congo win it was 0-1 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Zambia would win this match.

Result
Zambia	Draw	Congo
50.39% ( 0.71)	25.86% ( 0.15)	23.75% ( -0.86)

Both teams to score 48.05% (

-1.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.96% (

-1.23)

55.04% (

1.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.69% (

-1.02)

76.31% (

1.02)

Zambia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.11% (

-0.2)

21.89% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.86% (

-0.31)

55.14% (

0.31)

Congo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.52% (

-1.46)

38.48% (

1.46)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.77% (

-1.42)

75.23% (

1.42)

Score Analysis

Zambia 50.38%

Congo 23.75%

Draw 25.86%

Zambia	Draw	Congo
1-0 @ 12.79% ( 0.52) 2-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.34) 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.11) 4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.79% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.07% Total : 50.38%	1-1 @ 12.22% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.4) 2-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.2) Other @ 0.78% Total : 25.86%	0-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 5.84% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 3.84% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.09) Other @ 1.54% Total : 23.75%