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World Cup
Nepal national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Second Round
Mar 21, 2024 at 7pm UK
Stad al-Bahrayn al-Watanī
Bahrain national football team

Nepal
0 - 5
Bahrain


Dangi (57')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Al-Humaidan (2'), Baqer (9'), Madan (45+4'), Al Khatal (87'), Abdulatif (90+6' pen.)
Adel (14'), Al Hayam (68'), Madan (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Nepal and Bahrain, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nepal

Last Game: Nepal 0-2 Yemen
Tuesday, November 21 at 1.15pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Bahrain

All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: Bahrain 1-3 Japan
Wednesday, January 31 at 11.30am in Asian Cup

We said: Nepal 0-2 Bahrain

 Bahrain have come agonisingly close to qualifying for the World Cup on a couple of occasions within the past two decades, and have consistently punched above their weight at recent Asia Cups. Nepal, on the other hand, are clearly minnows at this stage of qualifying and may struggle to score a single goal across six matches. We expect a comfortable victory for the visitors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahrain win with a probability of 50.81%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Nepal had a probability of 21.39%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahrain win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.9%) and 1-2 (8.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Nepal win it was 1-0 (9.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bahrain would win this match.

Result
NepalDrawBahrain
21.39% (-1.31 -1.31) 27.8% (0.197 0.2) 50.81% (1.114 1.11)
Both teams to score 40.55% (-1.833 -1.83)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
36.55% (-1.605 -1.61)63.45% (1.606 1.61)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
17.21% (-1.169 -1.17)82.79% (1.17 1.17)
Nepal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.32% (-2.301 -2.3)45.68% (2.302 2.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.53% (-1.862 -1.86)81.47% (1.863 1.86)
Bahrain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.66% (-0.203 -0.2)25.34% (0.203 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.87% (-0.28 -0.28)60.13% (0.282 0.28)
Score Analysis
    Nepal 21.39%
    Bahrain 50.8%
    Draw 27.8%
NepalDrawBahrain
1-0 @ 9.07% (-0.037000000000001 -0.04)
2-1 @ 4.88% (-0.374 -0.37)
2-0 @ 3.55% (-0.25 -0.25)
3-1 @ 1.27% (-0.188 -0.19)
3-0 @ 0.93% (-0.131 -0.13)
Other @ 1.68%
Total : 21.39%
1-1 @ 12.45% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-0 @ 11.57% (0.67 0.67)
2-2 @ 3.35% (-0.278 -0.28)
Other @ 0.43%
Total : 27.8%
0-1 @ 15.89% (0.84 0.84)
0-2 @ 10.9% (0.51 0.51)
1-2 @ 8.55% (-0.137 -0.14)
0-3 @ 4.99% (0.206 0.21)
1-3 @ 3.91% (-0.086 -0.09)
0-4 @ 1.71% (0.061 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.53% (-0.137 -0.14)
1-4 @ 1.34% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 1.98%
Total : 50.8%

How you voted: Nepal vs Bahrain

Nepal
46.7%
Draw
20.0%
Bahrain
33.3%
15
rhs 2.0
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