We said: Equatorial Guinea 2-1 Malawi
While Malawi will be looking to pick up where they left off against Sao Tome, they are in for a tough 90 minutes against Equatorial Guinea who are known to be rock-solid on home soil. That said, we predict an action-packed affair at the Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, with the hosts claiming all three points.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 37.48%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Malawi win was 0-1 (11.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Equatorial Guinea in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Equatorial Guinea.
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