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Uruguayan Primera Division | Gameweek 5
Mar 4, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio Monumental Luis Tróccoli

Cerro
2 - 2
Nacional

Rodriguez (19'), Abero (67')
Fernandez (54'), Acosta (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Trezza (11'), Pereiro (70')
Noguera (38'), Morales (69')
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Cerro and Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cerro

All competitions
Last Game: River Plate 3-2 Cerro
Saturday, February 25 at 12.45pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Nacional

All competitions
Last Game: Nacional 3-1 Racing
Sunday, February 26 at 11pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 56.8%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 18.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.86%) and 1-2 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.

Result
CerroDrawNacional
18.16% (0.627 0.63) 25.04% (0.354 0.35) 56.8% (-0.98 -0.98)
Both teams to score 43% (0.115 0.12)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.2% (-0.429 -0.43)57.8% (0.429 0.43)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.47% (-0.34 -0.34)78.53% (0.34 0.34)
Cerro Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
53.98% (0.517 0.52)46.02% (-0.517 -0.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
18.27% (0.4 0.4)81.73% (-0.39999999999999 -0.4)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.65% (-0.55399999999999 -0.55)20.35% (0.555 0.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.25% (-0.889 -0.89)52.75% (0.888 0.89)
Score Analysis
    Cerro 18.16%
    Nacional 56.78%
    Draw 25.04%
CerroDrawNacional
1-0 @ 7.27% (0.221 0.22)
2-1 @ 4.49% (0.124 0.12)
2-0 @ 2.82% (0.125 0.13)
3-1 @ 1.16% (0.049 0.05)
3-2 @ 0.93% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 1.49%
Total : 18.16%
1-1 @ 11.57% (0.16 0.16)
0-0 @ 9.36% (0.152 0.15)
2-2 @ 3.58% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 0.53%
Total : 25.04%
0-1 @ 14.9% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-2 @ 11.86% (-0.22 -0.22)
1-2 @ 9.21% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
0-3 @ 6.3% (-0.225 -0.23)
1-3 @ 4.89% (-0.102 -0.1)
0-4 @ 2.51% (-0.135 -0.14)
1-4 @ 1.95% (-0.075 -0.08)
2-3 @ 1.9% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 3.27%
Total : 56.78%

Head to Head
Feb 27, 2021 10.30pm
Cerro
0-1
Nacional

Garcia (43'), Cabrera (71'), Bentaberry (75')
Bergessio (51')
Martinez (20'), Trezza (32'), Mendez (48'), Rochet (75'), Ocampo (76')
Sep 7, 2020 12.15am
Nacional
5-1
Cerro
Rodriguez (25', 77'), Garcia (50'), Vecino (66' pen.), Cartagena (90+2')
Vinicius (16'), Yacob (54')
Cabrera (36' pen.)
Garcia (42'), Hernandez (50'), Cruz (61'), Bentaberry (66')
Oct 19, 2019 11pm
Nacional
2-0
Cerro
Ocampo (5'), Rodriguez (91')
Vina (27')

Nunez (45'), Brasil (79'), Alonso (81')
Mar 30, 2019 7pm
Cerro
0-2
Nacional

Tancredi (53'), Diaz (77'), Porras (77')
Bergessio (16'), Rivero (86')
Fernandez (90')
Aug 11, 2018 7pm
Cerro
1-2
Nacional
Lopez (3')
Nunez (16'), Izquierdo (92'), Irrazabal (95')
Irrazabal (95')
Bergessio (75'), Viudez (77')
Castro (54')
rhs 2.0
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Group A

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Germany Germany32107
Q Switzerland Switzerland31205
3 Hungary Hungary31023
4 Scotland flag Scotland30121

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4 Albania national flag Albania30121

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Q Denmark Denmark30303
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4 Serbia Serbia30212

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Q Netherlands Netherlands31114
4 Poland Poland30121

Group E

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Q Belgium Belgium31114
Q Slovakia Slovakia31114
4 Ukraine Ukraine31114

Group F

TeamPWDLPTS
Q Portugal Portugal32016
Q Turkey Turkey32016
Q Georgia Georgia31114
4 Czech Republic Czech Republic30121
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